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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (8715)	9/19/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: Daulat	Respond to of 9818

are you tracking INFY by any chance ???

To: flatsville who wrote (8715)	9/25/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Stock Watchers: Anecdote About DGI [Don't Get It] on Wall St. greenspun.com You guys prowl the web with incredible facility. I use my travels to fish information from virtually any source that I can. Unfortunately, when I report it, it is, by definition, heresay. On the positive side, it is also off the record. In the following anecdote I've got to be obtuse here to protect sources. Take it for what it's worth. With that said... During last week's downturn, one of the "street's" most visible events was a big downturn in a major blue chip due to a single analyst's revision of estimates. This is a blue chip that ought to be very sensitive to global economic downturns. I'm watching the shills (Moneyline, CNBC, Cavuto, etc.) and when they interview the analyst, it turns out to be a reasonably close aquaintance from college. In any event, I give him a call, we talk about the professional boost, exposure, etc., etc. and then I pose the big question: "Did you include y2k considerations in your pessimistic earnings estimates?" Answer: "No". Question: "Why not?" Answer: "Don't know what's going to happen, could be non-event, yada, yada, yada." At this point, I give him five minutes of my hardest GI sell which is basically a series of rhetorical questions laced with what I believe to be provocative facts. This includes: (1) What are the chances that the IRS will successfully remediate based upon previous fiascos, what would be the economic effect of them blowing it, and how would this impact [snip company name]'s profits? (We get an gasp on my first shot to the body.) (2) Let's assume Germany is ahead of the curve, which they appear not to be, what happens when the inevitable Russian meltdown shuts off the energy supplies estimated to be as much as 40% of Germany?s total consumption and how much [snip-product] do you think Germans will buy? (3) What happens if Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia -- three high risk countries -- screw the pooch and 50% of our oil imports are jeopardized bearing in mind, of course, that the downturn in the 1970s was triggered by a 5% constriction in flow? (4) What are the odds that enemy's of the state (e.g., terrorists) are so stupid and incompetent that they are not locking and loading as we speak? (5) If disruption of Taiwan's chip makers can tank the market, what happens when 50-60 other countries that supply us stuff are "disrupted" (not to mention small companies within the US)? This was the fastest DGI-to-GI conversion in my short career as a y2k missionary. At one point he says, "What the hell should I be doing with my own Fidelity accounts?" I told him what I?ve done and then asked, "Why are YOU asking ME this question since you work for [snip -- massive financial institution name]." When I asked why Wall St. doesn't see this, his answer was really quite predictable: "I don't know." This notion that the big money would see the problem if it were real is simply false. Regards Dave Dave (aaa@aaa.com), September 25, 1999