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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwarda who wrote (8716)	9/18/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Edwarda, I think Ed Yardeni is still right with his analysis on this inventory building skewing the economic data. There was some discussion of exactly how the Japanese economy was able to pull off .03 gain, given some of the terrible data they had on capital spending. Some of the more astute analysts attributed it to inventory building by US companies. Now the issue is what will Japan do for an encore during the 1st quarter of 2000 as inventories are reduced at the expense of daily production. That's why I believe Y2K disruptions or not, we are heading for at least a mild recession in certain parts of the economy, especially semi-conductors and technology (as Mr. Hickey so powerfully argues). Heard today that Gil Giordano, of the Financial Services Fund (TITNX) is seeing unexpectedly high call option premiums on financial services stocks, which he believes is indicative of a possible end of year rally. What may be the cause of these high premiums may be the expectation that US T-bills and Fed Fund rates may have to decline once again to neutralize any recessionary consequences of Y2K. If you talk with Ed, you might pass that analysis on to him and see what he thinks (you know him right?) Regards, Ron