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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Percival 917 who wrote (6537)	9/18/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

<<I have not gone...as full bore as you.>> --JY God, I hope that's a typo...<g> Today's posts, by the way, are a perfect example of the extraordinary signal-to-noise ratio of this thread, and why I will really really try to follow LL's excellent counsel to "try to stay quiet when I don't realy have anything useful to add." Some responses follow... Lindy's comments on the relative locks of the gorillas: printed out for safekeeping and future reference. Stan's and Lucius' comments on diversification: I agree with both. LL says that "the easiest way to diversify is to buy index funds with some of your funds, and use the rest to invest in the types of stocks you understand. Too many stocks makes it very difficult to find the time to follow them. I find less than 10 to be ideal." After lots of reading and thought over the last several months, I came independently to the EXACT same conclusion. As mentioned previously, my better half still has the larger account, which is index-heavy, thus leaving me free to shoot for higher returns in my account via consolidation in high-growth sector. My real concerns, at this point, are just what percentage Q to hold (now at 66%) and how to allocate the remainder among the remaining candidates. <<Any stock that has "more than doubled since last spring" only appears to be low risk in retrospect. At the time buying it meant going against the consensus that was already priced into the stock.>> --LL EXACTLY! This is what made re-reading the earlier posts on the thread so compelling: I knew how the story ended, but the people I was reading did not. In political science we can't test theories experimentally in laboratories, so we use historical cases, stating in advance what the theory predicts should happen. The archived posts represent a perfect retrospective test of everybody's arguments. In compiling information packages on Q for a couple of friends, for example, I printed out some of the earliest pro-Q posts as well as everything related to Geoff Moore's position. I was thus able to show, by comparing the dates to Q's chart, how and why the thread came to its conclusions before the market did, and even before the guru did, and how the predictions came true in the months that followed. This was far more convincing than any "hot tip" I could have given them... A friend at Merrill, for example--having heard about my enthusiasm--asked me to make my case to him this past week. I emailed him Monday night, after a close at 153, and explained what the long-term prospects were, what had caused the short-term drops, and why listening to Mark Roberts' conference call was worthwhile. I told him to do his own DD, but quickly, so that if/when the worries about the missed meeting were cleared up he could get in quick before it shot back up. By close Friday it was up more than 20% in four days, and this guy (who is a financial professional, in contrast to a rank amateur like me) was shaking his head in wonder. <<at the moment I think Siebel is the safest>> --MB that's what I had gathered--which is partly why I'm in SEBL and not the others at this point! <<Citrix might be the next safest....it's the company I probably understand the least of all those in my portfolio.>> --MB Christ, Mike, if YOU say that, how do think others should feel?! I can hardly follow the CTXS thread myself, and await further discussion from you, LL, and others. As for GMST, you and Stew have convinced me, and the moment the suit is settled I'll try to raise some cash to get in. <<I put a disproportionate amount of money in my best ideas>> --LL That's why I'm heaviest in QCOM, followed by JDSU. I have almost 10% in PMCS, which is certainly a great company, but the allocation is so high because it's done so well since I bought it this spring and I have learned from everybody NOT TO SELL WINNERS. thanks all, tekboy