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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (6548)	9/18/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Jean, CDMA will have to start winning over the GSM territories, or else will never become a gorilla, but be a wireless telecom "King & Royalty play" I have a little different take on it. I think Qualcomm is the proven gorilla of the CDMA space. CDMA is a technology upon which any of Qualcomm's competitors can choose to build their proprietary technologies. Qualcomm's proprietary innovations on CDMA technology have become the standard set by the product adopters. Everything from page 1 to page 308 (of the new manual) explains why it will be extraordinarily difficult for Qualcomm to be dethroned. Once we accept that, we have to question how large the market is for CDMA. Do we need Europe to accept CDMA in order to get monstrous returns from Qualcomm? My thinking: No. Though some would argue that TDMA and GSM make it more difficult for CDMA to expand, I would argue just the opposite. Because operators of existing TDMA and GSM can add CDMA at their own timetable as a layer on top of the others, and because 3G will allow end users of three-mode phones to roam from cell to cell regardless of the platform, I think the pre-existence of GSM and TDMA makes it easier for CDMA to expand. I don't know enough about GSM and TDMA to know whether or not each of those spaces has its own gorilla. But I feel they are threatened by the discontinuous innovations of Qualcomm more than Qualcomm is threatened by any inability to expand market share. Just my opinion. --Mike Buckley

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (6548)	9/19/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Beta vs VHS, VHS won even though it was crap compared to Beta.... GSM, or GSM+ (whatever it is called), could win against CDMA-Qualcomm. Yeah, Jean, the only real worry is execution. But, when I worry about it, I think of two things. 1: Mike's answer to your post, that we don't even need Europe to have an enormous Gorilla. 2: Microsoft in the late '80's. At the time, the lock they had was not as apparent as it is now, by far. Everyone at the time thought things were up for grabs. IMO, Softy was really not as in as strong a position in 1988 as Q is today, by far. I just got back early from my dance weekend, (had to abort Portland, the fire sprinklers came on in the ballroom there Sat afternoon and ruined the place for the weekend.) and found 77 posts ready to be read on this thread. I thought, "Oh, God, everybody had a chatty weekend", but when I read them, I found the noise level was practically nonexistent! A few to many people telling us who wonderful we are, but, other than that, everything was spot-on! You know, we are pretty damn good here!