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To: kash johal who wrote (78)	9/18/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 271

Re: Coppermine 256 in prices of $120-300 range at speeds of 667-800Mhz... I don't think Intel can afford to do that. Their annual depreciation is $4 Billion. These numbers are WAGs, but I think they've been covering that by doing something roughly similar to applying $200 to each of the approximately 20 million high end processors they sell each year - can't see where else they can put such a cost. So figure those coppermines at $50 for materials and $200 for depreciation for a total cost basis of $250. Dan

To: kash johal who wrote (78)	9/18/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 271

Kash, <Look you are making the assumption that AMD will be 1-2 speed grades ahead- I find that unlikely frankly.> Yup, I stated that assumption and looks like we disagree. OK. <For Q1-Q2 2000: I can see Coppermine-128's running in $75-100 range at speeds of 500-650Mhz. I can see Coppermine 256 in prices of $120-300 range at speeds of 667-800Mhz. So lets not assume that Intel is REMOTELY DEAD yet.> <So I wouldn't be too sure of Intels demise just yet.> Firstly, I do not believe the speeds that you quote are competitive for Q1/Q2 of next year. Secondly, for some reason you have come to the conclusion that I am implying that Intel is dead. Why? I have repeatedly asserted, sometimes addressed directly to you, that Intel will be the market share leader 2 years out. Where is the confusion? All I am stating is the ASPs are on the way down. They will effect the ultimate profit potential of both AMD and Intel. For AMD it is a new market segment so they can look at it as reduced market potential. Intel, on the otherhand, is incumbant and will bear the brunt of ASP erosion - but that can hardly be called demise. <They could capture 80% of low end and 90% of high end next year. AMD has a decent shot at a double or triple next year but they have NO CHANCE at capturing much more than 15% of the total market next year or around 20M pcs. And they can only do this if they execute flawlessly.> We are quite far apart on that one. I say let's agree to disagree and move on. Chuck