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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wren who wrote (8657)	9/18/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Wren re<<<<Does Bob believe a correction is imminent?>>>>> Don't know but based on what he has said I suspect he thinks we're in the midst of what could be an extended topping which may lead at some point to the end of the bull market. The problem I have and that Bob has also expressed to some degree is that sentiment just isn't bullish enough to suggest we are imminently at that point. If looked at a different way that may not be a problem if we look at the time when we initially got into the area of the highs in May bullish sentiment was running in the very high 60's and I guess one could say the topping process of the end of the bull started then but from what I understand extreme bullish sentiment correlates pretty closely within perhaps several days or weeks of when the downturn starts. To use the example of 1976 that Bob has mentioned strictly in terms of the nature of the topping process then that bears similarity to what may be going on now and not necessarily in terms of the fundamentals between then and now, if we do however look at sentiment right around the start of the bear the bulls taken in isolation hit an all time record high of an astounding 84.4% bulls and the bulls/(bulls+bears) was a very dramatically bullish 90% and the calculated bullishness at other market tops have been in the 70's area. My information comes from a graphic that Wall Street Week puts up occasionally with Ruykeiser showing how the newsletter writers tend to be wrong at major market turns and which they happened to have put up again last night updating it to now include Sept 11 1998 when the bulls/(bulls+bears) by my calculation was 43.4% with a 3,008 point, 39% rise then occurring in the next 12 months. Anyway it is due to the lack of extremely bullish sentiment either by the Investor's Intelligence survey or by the P/C ratio that I sold my bear fund hedge and went from an extremely defensive position to a less defensive position. Will fundamentals such as deteriorating money supply growth etc. throw us into a downturn without bullish sentiment getting extended anymore? Interesting question. Marc

To: Wren who wrote (8657)	9/18/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: Digger Sacket	Respond to of 15132

Surely you're not saying that Robbie talks like a bear, but acts like a bull???? HA!!! What bull??? Digger

To: Wren who wrote (8657)	9/18/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Wren: "Does Bob believe a correction is imminent?" Seems to me one can make the argument that we are in a correction. Wilshire 5000 after Friday's 1% plus rally is still over 6% off the high. And viewing the market as in a correction would certainly go far in explaining the sentiment numbers. So maybe the issue is whether there more to come.