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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CpsOmis who wrote (51381)	9/19/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I think you are right about the intrinsically boom/bust pattern of the oil market. Marginal producers will keep producing as prices sink, hoping for the best until they are bankrupt or nearly. Also, the cheating among OPEC and other majors on quotas tends to be infectious, until all of them are losing money. In the long run, depletion will have to force prices to higher highs. It's just that the technology keeps improving so that what oil remains is (for the time being)easier and cheaper to find. There may be a very large field near the Falklands, though the last drop in prices stopped exploration there. Horizontal drilling in older fields collects much more oil. The real worldwide folly (as we all know)is the failure to invest heavily in energy sources that can ultimately replace oil. I find it extremely hard to go counter to crowd psychology in oil prices, however. I never dreamed they would either sink so far or rise so fast. Imagine if the Dow Jones Average over the past two years had dropped to 5,000--and then risen back above 10,000 in the space of a few months.

To: CpsOmis who wrote (51381)	9/20/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: William JH	Respond to of 95453

The boom bust scenario you described is certainly easy to believe, and may come to pass. While I am primarily interested in NatGas, I am investing with the point of view that: 1. Most countries are striving for economic growth, and growth leads to higher energy demand. I have read estimates that a fully developed world would have 3 X the energy usage of today. 2. Advances in communications and the internet will speed world development greatly. 3. Non-OPEC production increases will not exceed gains in world demand. If I am wrong I might lose a little. If I am right, I might make a lot. I like that proposition.