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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (41802)	9/19/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

on Stealth Bear market.. not so much that the emperor has no clothes, but rather the emperor has no underwear and he keeps leaning over to pick up the small cap stocks the Advance-Decline Line looks bad, got worse last week.. perhaps it is done worsening.. saw some favorite smallcaps do well these past couple weeks.. biggest reason I hate trading smallcaps.. they are like first lieutenants in VietNam (first shot dead) I am afraid the USdollar decline since midJuly has hurt the stock market, primarily with secondary issues reminds me of 1994 when largecap stocks treaded water while smallcap suffered 20-40% declines.. underlying malady then was interest rates rising to 6,7,8,9%.. here we saw rates rise from 5.5% to 6.2%.. more importantly, Fed money flows were stemmed finally after the LTCM Oct98 fiasco.. this has had a greater effect on US$ than anything else traded if market is treading water until dollar/bond/moneyflow is stabilized, then broad stock rally can resume.. if financial foundation takes another big shock like last July, then stocks will be in trouble (big/mid/small) the stealth shock was to moneyflow.. the stealth hit was to 2ndary stocks the technicals to US$ (trade weighted) and TBonds continues to improve.. you wouldnt know it by looking at $/Yen alone.. but TenYr Notes look to be strengthening, and that is linked to ALL mortgages.. I think the shock wave to unwinding the LTCM mess is over any opinions on dollar, trade, moneyflow, bonds? .. only two things matter with stocks: earnings and rates only one thing matters to emerging alpha gorillas: food / jim