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Technology Stocks : Internet Capital Group Inc. (ICGE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LOGAN12 who wrote (587)	9/19/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: TIG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4187

Linda, I want to add my $.02 to this subject. I know VERY LITTLE about stocks, so read my message with utmost suspicion. I have both ICGE and CMGI, and going to hold it for a long time. I do not recommend you invest in ICGE at this level, purely based on a ratio of risk/reward. Unless you are highly speculative about this stock, otherwise, wait till after Oct, which triditionally is quite negative to the stock market. Said that, I also will give you a reason why I think shorts may will the battle, and losing the war. I, along with quite a number of friends, have lost quite some money on shorting net stocks in the course of last 3 years (because I never believe in AMZN,ONSL,CYSP,COOL etc., but I do believe B2B though).But when a stock is in a hot sector, just into the publicity phase, (like B2B right now, just as B2C did a year ago), DO NOT FIGHT THE TAPE. I used to rack my low-IQ brain trying to do TA and other analysis on the stocks I shorted, but one thing you can not manage is the news release about the hot sector. With a small float, a stock can rise sharply because of a particular postive piece of news etc. How can you control that? Short squeeze resulted, I lost my shirt. Of course, people later were getting tired of the "dot.com" news releases, and POS companies stocks got a haircut(almost total head-shaving). But B2B is just getting hot now, and it's very dynamic and fluid. So expect more news coming out. We are on an upward curve, it's just dangerous to short. Case in mind, GS released the B2B outlook report yesterday, and B2B stocks like CMRC,ARBA,ICGE,BRCD etc, went through the roof. It's hard to control these externalities, and thus making shorting difficult. And the people who enjoy the run are the longs at the shorts expense. Hope I made sense, if not, blame the malnutrition I suffered when I was a child. Good night.

To: LOGAN12 who wrote (587)	9/19/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4187

Another Strategy for ICGE: Wait until February '00. If you have the patience, another reasonable strategy would be to wait until 6 months after the IPO. At this point, I assume that a substantial fraction of the insiders shares will be unlocked. This would be expected to substantially depress the share price. The unknown here is whether or not Y2K problems overseas are going to do enough damage to the global economy to hurt the US markets during Q1 00. I would guess this would not be a big deal, but others think differently. According to a survey conducted by Bruce Webster, co-chairman of D.C.-based Year 2000 Group, 38% of Y2K experts expect a 20% loss in stocks with a recovery in 2001; 45% expect a six-month recession; 42% expect scattered utility and supply challenges lasting at least two weeks; 30% expect one major U.S. agency (like the IRS) to fail completely. The expected failure rate in Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan is 33%, and 66% in China and Indonesia. The Federal Reserve will be distributing $200 billion to 100 bank centers nationwide, as Greenspan expects a run on banks to peak around the end of November. I am neither long nor short ICGE, but I must admit to a poor record in timing this stock--I missed most of the rise due to my low risk-tolerance. You might be wise to see what some of the other folks on this thread, who have done better than myself on ICGE, think. Tom D