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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (207)	9/19/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Bux	Respond to of 12254

Jon, I think technical analysis has limited use for buy and hold aquarium carriers but since a carrier has the risk of losing 100% of initial investment, maybe some observations are in order. First, it is apparent that while both the initial and secondary investments declined in value at approximately the same rate, the initial investments can be costed over a longer period. That being said, both investments have declined in value to zero. This is only mitigated by the presumption that the students were able to enjoy the initial fish for a considerable period of time. With the fundamentals understood, it is now time to move onto the TA. An astute technical analyst should have noted at an early point in time that guppies were not appreciating whereas the "fancy" fish were observed to have mild ASP appreciation although somewhat below the rate of inflation. This ignores the guppymania of 1986 when the Japanese effectively cornered the guppy market but of course the effect was not long lived since guppies have a short period of gestation and a high BG/BG (baby guppies/breeding guppies) ratio. Non-recurring market conditions should be ignored for the most accurate technical analysis. The TA analysis of guppy price trends can be extrapolated to conclude that guppy prices are likely to stay flat for the forseeable future and fancier fish can be expected to see mild ASP price increases going forward. Disclaimer This analysis contains many forward looking statements which are predicated upon assumptions that may or may not be valid including but not limited to the ready availability of a water supply suitable for breeding guppies, the continued availability of low-wage professional guppy breeders, a stable rate of mortality of captive guppies, the absence of a cost effective "guppy viagra" available to breeders, and other factors which could cause the ASP of guppies to fluctuate unpredictably.