INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY Futurists see a wireless world
The only debate is over how soon we'll be armed with the next
generation of mobile gadgets. We probably won't be waiting long
source : G&M theglobeandmail.com
type in Qualcomm in the search engine
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Qualcomm is mentioned at bottom of article re: PDQ phone and some #s such as 15 million per year ( there is only 30 million people in Canada, so I assume this is a NA or world # ) sold annually starting in 2002. Or is this # 15 MM for only 3 COM ?
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regards,
Dave
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Friday, September 17, 1999
Blake Hanna is looking forward to the day when he can make his travel arrangements from his car, en route to the airport.
Driving along Highway 401 in Toronto on his way to Pearson International Airport, the Andersen Consulting partner will log onto the Internet from his mobile phone, check Air Canada's flight schedules to Montreal and book his flight.
Travelling at 100 kilometres an hour, Mr. Hanna obviously won't be able to peck away at his phone keypad to dial Air Canada's RapidAir number. He'll use a voice command to log on and do the transaction.
When is this futuristic scenario likely to happen? Mr. Hanna is willing to bet he'll be able to connect wirelessly within three years.
"The technology will be clunky, of course, and then it will be cannibalized within another two years by better technology. But in five years, practically all of us will be using voice commands and wireless data transfers on our smart phones for 'live' transactions," he predicts.
Imagine surfing the Web from anywhere with a smart phone, no waiting, no fuss, no wires. As you travel in your car, you get an accurate fix on your precise location with a global positioning system. Check your handset for real-time quotes as you land at Tokyo's Narita Airport and then make a stock purchase as you walk to your taxi. In the cab, open your cell phone to play the latest version of the computer game Myst.
In the new millennium, you'll be able to do this and much more. Enhanced broadband services will let you connect wirelessly to the Internet with a handheld device, probably the size of the current two-way pagers. The futurists agree that it's going to happen. The debate is over when we'll all be armed with mobile gadgets.
"We're going to have massive penetration gains in wireless use in Canada in the next few years," predicts Al Gilchrist, president of Nokia Canada.
Mr. Gilchrist notes that in Helsinki, home of Nokia, nearly 70 per cent of the population uses mobile phones, compared with 17 per cent in Canada.
Finland's mobile world today is a good preview of what to expect here in the near future. There, with a cellular phone you can buy a pop from a vending machine, select whether you want a wax finish on your vehicle as it goes through the car wash, and zap a digital picture to a friend.
You'll carry a multitude of wireless phones: one for the car, another for work, a slim, colourful version for evenings. Right now in Finland, there are more mobile handsets than landline phones.
Although the world is not moving to one telephone standard, the coming generation of smart phones will be adaptable in many locations away from home. World travellers will no longer have to take different handsets to different destinations.
"It's amazing, I was in China two years ago and one of my Finnish colleagues stepped out of the plane and dialled seven digits directly home with his GSM phone. What's do-able in China, hopefully, will be do-able here in a few years," says Mr. Gilchrist.
Will we have one wireless device that will do it all? Mark Guibert, marketing director at Research in Motion (RIM) Ltd. of Waterloo, thinks consumers will carry two items: an optimized voice device and a small data unit.
"Phones should be designed for the space between your ear and your mouth while data devices are best suited for your eyes and fingers," he says.
RIM is the manufacturer of the popular interactive pager offered by Cantel AT&T in Canada and BellSouth in the United States.
"In the next few years, there's going to be a phenomenal growth in E-mail and messaging that will hugely expand the current market of more than 50 million pagers in North America. Once you factor in the Internet, a RIM interactive pager becomes your command central and wearable viewer to information," says Mr. Guibert.
Further ahead, he sees small pagers becoming consumer items. Subscribers will use them to receive information about sport scores, breaking news, weather reports, and the killer application of them all -- wireless E-mail.
Michael Moskowitz, national account manager of Palm Computing for 3Com Canada of Toronto, argues that one super-gadget will combine the best of voice and data. For instance, the Qualcomm PDQ phone, to be released soon in Canada by Bell Mobility, marries the functionality of a PalmPilot personal digital assistant with a cell phone.
"Wireless access on a handheld device must be simple, fast and affordable. The Palm platform has the potential to deliver on all fronts," says Mr. Moskowitz.
By 2002, he anticipates that more than 15 million handheld devices will be sold annually. Whatever the actual format, your pocket-sized organizer will allow you to send messages and access the Web anywhere, any time. Flip up its antennae and you'll be able to call home as well. |
