To: E_K_S who wrote (19943 ) 9/20/1999 12:19:00 AM From: E_K_S Respond to of 64865
Post from Raging Bull - One investor's opinion... (http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=SUNW&read=1721) By: Decomposed Reply To: 1719 by HILYPH Saturday, 18 Sep 1999 at 5:42 PM EDT Post #1721 of 1733 "...Every so often, I like to review a list of dominant tech companies and their market capitalizations. Today's looks like this: MSFT : 492 billion CSCO : 237 billion IBM : 227 billion LU : 214 billion T : 146 billion DELL : 125 billion HWP : 102 billion AOL : 95 billion SUNW : 68 billion ORCL : 60 billion CPQ : 40 billion XRX : 28 billion COMS : 9 billion It is up to each of you to draw conclusions, but MY gut feeling is that CSCO, LU, HWP, DELL and AOL look awfully pricey. I have a tough time imagining CSCO doubling again -- to Microsoft's size, almost! I know the internet is growing like crazy, but I think that was taken into account long ago in deciding how much CSCO stock is worth. Lucent is a great company, but I just don't feel it is worthy of its huge market cap. It's no AT&T, but its market cap says it's AT&T and then some! Hewlett Packard doesn't have nearly the stellar reputation it had ten years ago, and I don't see the company putting out anything amazing real soon. I know HP intends to pursue the file server market Sun dominates, but I see no impending reason for Sun supporters to be concerned. Dell... had its decade. It's about over now. Compaq or Gateway or some new PC company can take the limelight away very easily. Dell's dominance is as tenuous as Compaq's was, not to mention the many other also-rans we've seen over the years. Remember Northgate? Compu-Add? Do any of us really care what BRAND of PC we buy anymore? AOL is the best of the internet stocks, but the internet stocks have lost their sparkle and can never regain the sterling reputation they had. The company also faces a tremendous number of major threats: What to do about high-speed access? What about Microsoft's threat of free internet? How much time remains on the clock that investors are watching before they demand the company to show significant profit? MSFT looks very iffy to me as well -- but more due to its legal woes than its #1 market cap. On the other hand, some of the smaller companies look like bargains. SUNW continues to look cheap given the number of neat things it has brewing for the next few years. COMS is the #1 maker of network cards and is spinning off its PALM division. CPQ looks AWFULLY cheap compared to its rival, DELL. I'm neutral on AT&T (T), XEROX (XRX) and ORACLE (ORCL). I really think these three could move strongly in either direction, but if I had to bet, I'd put the money on movement UPWARD..." ============================================================ I would disagree with this investor's opinion of AT&T (T) as longer term T should generate lots of Free Flow Cash flow and to me is undervalued at these levels. EKS