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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PJ Strifas who wrote (28182)	9/20/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42771

WHO DO YOU TRUST? Individuals vs. Companies. >>Toy makes an interesting point and I agree. The greatest barrier will be changing the process in which we do business today. Many companies will not want this change to occur - in fact, Novell should get the consumer behind this product before it goes after the vendors. Actually, there will be some enterprising individuals who will take digitalme and begin to create communities. Just as AOL started out small, so too will these communities. They will grow and flourish with the first phase of digitalme extending the current internet community phenomenon. After this initial phase and possibly the adoption of this digitalme stuff but someone like MindSpring or a broadband carrier (perhaps AOL?) things can really change. And I think the possibility of this happening is what keeps us glued to this new technology framework.>> Peter: Thanks for your feedback. I brought this up back last winter, but here's the $64 question: Which market does Novell want to go after? 1) Individual consumers. or 2) Companies. I think the shift in the record since BrainShare spell out that Novell has chosen answer # 2. Prior to Brainshare, DigitalMe was this white hot bullet, full of energy and wonder. After Brainshare, DigitalMe retreated into the catacombs of Novell's bureaucracy. I think the "enterprise/legacy" folks liked the "white hot" press from last March - see Barrons, etc. - and wanted to control this thing. That's just the way I see it. So where does that leave Novell? And where and how could Microsoft somehow work this environment to steal a bead on this evolution? First, I think Microsoft recognizes and understands how massively quick this shift toward the internet can be. Active Directory won't be what NDS is when it first comes out. But, my guess is that just as they did with NT, they will impress the heck out of developers more with the APIs and ways it will eventually talk to this and that. So CONNECTIVITY and OPENNESS will be key to the success in the Directory Wars. Novell can't quid pro quo NDS like they tried to do with Netware. The Netware vs. NT battle was lost in the field of application development. Novell just made it too damn hard for companies to develop to their APIs. Microsoft, on the other hand, made it very easy for companies to develop to their APIs. And remember, in the beginning NT really stood for "nothing there" yet Microsoft schmoozed app developers with their commitment to "open up." If you are Bill Gates, of course it doesn't hurt to know that he can have a win/win - let the Visio's the world buy tickets and climb on board the Windows train. If they get successful enough, you can still snatch them up and continue the aggregation and consolidation. Historically with Novell, however, the energy has been reversed: old legacy arrogance of "being first" in the NOS market still exists and must be rooted out. Brilliant engineers, but very hard when it comes to seeing the value of "opening up." Eric Schmidt better break this log jam inside Novell. The Internet is supposed to be where Novell places it's future stake. Earlier this year it looked as if Novell was going to hit a homerun, but ever since Brainshare the energy quotient has shifted for the worse. The unveiling of DigitalMe will tell us all where Novell plan to place it's major bets. If, as I suspect, the Novell enterprise NOS guys are in control, DigitalMe will be this very cute middle-of-the road value-added benefit - like ManageWise - that Novell too often likes to wave under the noses of their enterprise clients to convince them that the power of the Netware platform is still alive and well. But the energy behind Managewise faded and I'm afraid if Eric lets the same mindset control DigitalMe, it's fate will turn out the same - cute, buzzy, but missed the mark. Perhaps a band of New Service Model thieves are needed to embrace a PURE PUBLIC version of DigitalMe - separate and apart from Novell. Perhaps these same people - of which I'm one of them - can make it a horse race. Go hat in hand to Novell and Microsoft. Play a very neutral even hand. Then ask: show us the money - show us the energy, show us the "openness." Individuals will flock to whatever platform gives off the most energy. I have committed myself to Novell for I felt that NDS could become the new lauching pad and switchboard for net appplications that need to feed off data. NDS and DigitalMe represented a wonderful clean slate to work with. But Novell must commit to opening up this game to end consumers. And this is what I've said all along: Novell better understand that their furture rest with working for us - individuals - not the other way around with companies. Anything less means they just "don't get" the Internet. WE are the future. Companies represent the past. Microsoft's investments in digital wireless technologies, broadband, set-top boxes and a variety of other conduits provides convincing evidence that they know and understand the power of the individual. My problem is not that they understand, but how they've leveraged this understanding into a monopoly. DigitalMe and NDS should be given away for FREE, period. NOW, not later. If Eric were to makes this one incredible desision, he would break the back of Novell's arrogant legacy, and everyone inside Novell would be forced to understand this new energy of "service" - as opposed to business - which is fueling the growth of the net. Novell would immediately have to shift in high gear to open up to the application development community. Perhaps then Eric and Bill Joys ride can begin in earnest. Peace. GO!!