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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IndioBlues who wrote (51450)	9/20/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

O/T Indio... << one of the best discussions we've had....>> To an extent - I agree; I said that earlier; but in the context that the "potential" for learning was there. Actually, the discussion has been pretty one sided here on the "devils advocate" side (VBG). The best thing that any poster can do for the thread here; is to jar the thinking. to challenge the status quo mindset... to "shake" things up occassionally - to look at things in a different light. Imho; no one , or very few - "get it" here... FGI did not selloff from $20 to $10 directly into the face of Oil ramping to $24 and the OSX to a 52 week high - without reason ! That that "reason" was never discussed intelligently and unemotionally then, or now - is my entire point. Too many people are still clinging to the Holy Grail here... and this is no less a "Cheerleading" thread - than any other... clinging to the myth of $20 FGI here and claiming FGI is "undervalued" here - is merely another form of "hype". While I seriously do not think FGI is going to $5 overnight; my point is that with a serious cancellation, with HLX backing out of the merger, with an arbitration loss, or any other bad news; or even wuth merely the continued erosion of the backlog - that FGI "could" realistically look at $5 as the potential bottom. My emphasis is not that FGI should be $5 here; it "is" that FGI should definitely not be $20 here ! FGI is fairly valued at a trading range of $8-$12 here; and where it goes within that range will be based on new orders, the arbitration hearing, the financing for the Bingo rigs, and if the merger happens. With the merger closing - FGI/HLX becomes the posterchild for deadmoney for 2-3 quarters. The complexities of the integration of these two companies is not being addressed by this thread at all. Everyone is expecting some major "pop" off the finalization of the meger... The Street will absoluely require JL - "showing them the money" (the reporting numbers) for at least 2-3 quarters before getting behind this company and its stock in a major way. It is NOT as if FGI's management has the track record of doing a deal of this magnitude people... that HLX's Dane is the CEO in 2 years says something about FGI's management behind JL here... FGI is not Halliburton management-wise folks... this went from a micro - to a mid cap (now back to a small cap) overnight... lots of personnel issues with the Street here. It is not like FGI will just be managing 1-2 yards any longer... add the Shipbuilding Industry factor into that... and you have at best - an uproven track record in the ability to swallow what they've bit off here... ... and this is hardly be handled in a text-book manner here of late. "If" FGI can assimilate HLX smoothly, if they can sell and then show the synergies and the cost savings; and then if they can get some new major orders - and STOP the Backlog bleeding; then - and ONLY then: will FGI return to former valuation levels... That so many, refuse to unemotionally discuss the "devils advocate" downside to FGI - on a reasonable basis; is the lesson to be learned here. If we had this discussion earlier; we could have potentially saved individual investors a lot of money... how many people jumped on here at $16, $18 on those runs to $18 & $20 recently ? How many have held down through $15, then to $13 - just days ago; now down $3 allmost overnight to the $10's ? and with the relentless pressure of the shorts - pounding away during a "silent period".... not pretty potentially for the nearterm either... Geiche & John Clarke --- you may have lots of blood (FGI individual investor "losses") on your hands due to your remarks on this thread... How do you rationalize not stepping aside to preserve capital here; then returning & buying back into FGI - upon the merger formalization, upon the arbitration news, upon FGI announcing a new major contract; and especially upon FGI technically bottoming here ??? Some people could be wiped out by FGI here if the HLX merger falls through. From $18 to $10, to $9, to $8 to ??? and if they are holding on margin through all of this ? At the very least - sell and step aside; live to fight another day. Rotate into MDR, GLBL and far, far better niches that Offshore Rig & Shipbuilding... play the Utility - Nat Gas pipeline, transmission & conversion plays on MDR , GLBL, HOFF if you like "construction". MDR so far overshadows FGI as a "Value", or a "growth" play here that it is the single most "no-brainer" comparison that I see... within many peer groups. Also, does anyone think that FGI's niche here has the leverage to the nearterm that the Drillers do ? ... FGI - had its day in the sun; "them days is over" - period. Move on... get over it. PS - marc: good point; re: <<If it turns out that my FGI today (if I had any) dropped to 8, then went to 15 or 20 in 9 months, I could live with that.>> ... that would get 90% of individual FGI investors back to their cost basis at least (VBG) - but, how many "doubles" did they miss in other stocks is my main point !