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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (51457)	9/20/1999 12:25:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 95453

pz, Personally I hope slider is short FGI, he deserves to be paid for all this effort and work.(G) hdr

To: pz who wrote (51457)	9/20/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

pz; re FGI... very few if any - are getting the message here... Everyone critically points to my "agenda", or my "hype" of my positions. Honestly; I can think of no one - who is more open about their positions. Also, very few seem to be capable of accepting the premise - that there comes a time to sell & step aside to protect capital in times of turmoil, or transition - ala my call with MEXP - which made EVERYONE who followed that call money and allowed me to step back in very profitably. Few here seem to be willing to accept that one can sell, to protect capital during turmoil; only to re-enter at a better risk vs. reward timeframe. Or to sell to take profits at a top, only to buy back cheaper later; or that there also may be a time to trade the stock short, during a time of negative fundamentals, news, or market momenetum. Why is the concept of "shorting" so unacceptable to everyone ? That stocks move both up and down - but, that so many individual investors limit themselves and their thinking and analysis; to just the upside; gives someone like me, a tremendous advantage when trading on the downside. Now I am merely unemotionally shorting FGI ( a very moderate position by the way)with the market momenteum - taking full advantage of what the tape so clearly shows; ie: a non-stop imbalance on the bid:ask -The quiet period, the questions on the merger, the ratios etc - let alone all of the fundamentally supported reasons... and now "I" am manipulating, or spinning reality to support my position. Actually folks - the ONLY reality is the tape; is it not ? The tape is the scoreboard - it is what issues us our paycheck. It is the referee, the judge and the jury - period. In all honesty; I think this is a major point to discuss here. I am not just "spewing" on FGI here. I am at times, taking a somehwat "tongue in cheek" position - maybe somewhat overdone at times; to drive home a point. We just had a thread fav' fall from $18 to $20 to $10 here. This is a literal "DECIMATION" of a stock. No other word is appropriate. Anyone who may have bought FGI heavilly on margin on those pops above $15 - could have been totally wiped out; if they held through this freefall. That I am allmost painted as the "antichrist" in trying to jar the mindset here on FGI is not a "good thing" as Martha would say... Someone needed to do this a long time ago... That individual investors get so emotional, so blinded and that it clouds their rationality; to the degree it does - allows "Big Money" to be able to continually take "small money." Never has there been such a simplistic, rational, or clear example of why a stock has been decimated in half. That FGI has had substantial insider selling, that it has huge, huge short interest has been either totally ignored, or simplistically dismissed. THIS WAS A WARNING - and should allways be a warning in the future. FGI quite simply was in a subsector niche that dramatically benefited by a unique peak of business. That the insiders knew this - and sold their shares was smart. It was their acknowledgement of reality. That this "dream" would not go on perpetually. Ask FLC - about that... the shorts made a very simple bet here; that the BOOM of 1997's Offshore Rig Construction was an upside "anomaly" - and that FGI's shareprice decline was NOT a downside valuation "anomaly". It seems to get lost here - that stocks can get overpriced on an "anomaly" basis - just as easily as they can get undervalued on an anomaly basis... FGI was overpriced - the Offshore Rig Construction Boom was over - as soon as Big Oil announced their Cap Ex cuts; as soon as they started selling and delaying Deepwater Projects. Shorts instantaneously knew that FGI was overvalued. The pool of Cap Ex money necessary to support FGI as those prior shareprice levels evaporated... FGI was the posterchild for the drop in Big Oil Cap Ex spending - those $200 Million Dollar "chunks" - ramp you up and slam you down. FGI unfortunately is playing in a poker game; where the chips are of the $100 & $200 Million Dollar variety; no $10 & $20 game here (VBG). This is a Big Money Game. You either get real rich, real fast - or; real broke real fast... FGI had is upside, now reality has set back in - and the downside is just as magnified.While FGI is far from "broke" - those $100 & $200 M chips are not nearly as plentifull as they once were. It is literally as simple as - "The Pie has shrunk." To ever play FGI; remember this: 1. It is a big ante game - $100 & $200 M chips - this isn't a $10 & $20 table at the back of the room... this is a high roller game - FGI moves dramtically on the basis of just one,or two orders. 2. Look straight to Big Oil and #1. their participation in the Offshore Leases - as this allways preceeds and determines the needs for new Rigs 3. Look to the Cap Ex spending environment - FGI is a late, or peak of the cycle company - not a benefactor of the initial recovery we are seeing here. 4. Look to the sentiment towards "debt" in the market place. That everyone seemed to be ignoring the BLATANT fact - that virtually everyone was either trying to delay, cancel, or litiagate over accepting Offshore Rigs of late... That the FLC's, PDE's etc got decimated by the Street for their huge debt loads that are necessary to take on these newbuild projects was something to not ignore... but, many seemed to forget this. 5. Look to dayrates on Offshore Rigs - dayrates MUST be at levels to support new construction. They are NOT close here... and no one, - NO ONE is predicting that they will be within the next 12-18 mos in fact. 6. Look to Rig Utilization: FLC has 2 years of FGI potential "newbuild" business - Cold Stacked ! .... and do not buy the total myth, that the $ generated by bringing those rigs to a working status is enough to move FGI back to good graces - it is not. The real trade here is not my "short" from $11 1/8th here... maybe I make .75 cents, maybe $1, maybe $2; - I'll make a very, very easy $3-$4 on the euphoric rushing in of the fools - when FGI does bounce; I will pocket that bounce - selling where the technicals tell me to (prior resistance will hold) and then turning and shorting once again... as the profit taking and the trading patterns on FGI will not change; untill FGI/HLX report 2-3 quarters of operating #'s, or untill they post some major new orders - boosting the backlog. Until then; Short the momenteum; play the bounce long; then take profits and go short at resistance once again... the Street has been doing this for months.... why play in one direction - when there is so much money on both sides of the street ?