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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (26363)	9/20/1999 12:42:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, one thing I like about you is that when you make pretty extreme assertions, as you do from time to time, you can usually come up with pretty convincing arguments for them when pressed. Just an observation. :) <if anything seems out of kilter at this time it's the explosion in credit, the asset bubble and the current account deficit> I am well aware of the current account deficit, and agree that this is a real problem, although we have lived with it for a generation now, and still seem to defy its consequences.... As for an asset bubble, I see danger signs of one, but none to the extent of 1980's Japan, as Donald has also just mentioned. Given that AG is well aware of this danger, I expect him to address it with the tools at hand, perhaps as early as 10/5. :< How serious is the explosion in credit? I have noticed you mention it before, but don't remember any specific numbers. <in essence, the U.S. economy is consuming itself silly at the expense of private savings and the quality of credit.> Isn't it true that savings is no longer a very important factor? Instead, as a nation, we are choosing to invest in vehicles such as equities. Why is that such a bad thing? Anecdotally, my accountant always mentions our paltry savings account. Needless to say, I am choosing to invest in vehicles that are much, much, much more lucrative. What is wrong with that? <since there hasn't been a recession for a long time now, there has been no opportunity to clean out excesses. the long term health of an economy however requires that excesses be pruned from time to time. in view of that i don't believe that a 'soft landing' is as desirable as most people seem to believe.> Seems to be working so far. Don't worry, be happy!! <g> < i am not proposing a conspiracy theory - but governments will always tend to do whatever serves their own interest before the interests of their citizens...it's a tried and tested truism throughout history.> In an open society, surrepticiously coordinating the efforts of dozens if not hundreds of individuals to effectuate a given agenda is easier said than done. Just ask Richard Nixon.