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To: Hobie1Kenobe who wrote (77827)9/20/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: Bob Kim  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
JF3, RE: ML AOL comments

Blodget said that the Sep quarter looks strong and if that turns to be the case, then Dec quarter should be even better. He indicated the stock was weak due to concerns over MSN and NetZero.

Bob



To: Hobie1Kenobe who wrote (77827)9/20/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
This is for all that are interested:

Investment Highlights:
* We continue to believe that AOL is not yet seeing any negative impact from
pricing pressure and that third and fourth quarter results will be strong.
* The AOL PHONES issue trades at a highly attractive valuation discount of
6.7%. We continue to recommend it.
* The convert is included in our Convertible Model Portfolio as an Equity
alternative.
America Online/TRB PHONES 2.0% 5/15/29
America Online (AOL/$85; D-1-1-9) continues to lag the rest of the leading business-to-consumer
(B2C) Internet stocks, primarily as a result of concern about potential pricing
pressure in the access business. We continue to believe that AOL is not yet seeing any
negative impact from pricing pressure (on the contrary, the bundling deals appear to have
jumpstarted Compuserve?s subscriber growth without cannibalizing the growth of the AOL
service) and that CQ3 and CQ4 will be strong. In recent days, the access concern has been
exacerbated by 1) the IPO roadshow of NetZero, a company that offers Internet access for
free, and 2) an impending investor day at Microsoft on Thursday, September 23, at which
Microsoft will review its Internet strategy. We continue to believe that investors should
monitor the progress of NetZero, Microsoft, and other companies pushing the access issue,
but unless we see hard evidence of cannibalization, we will maintain our outlook and rating.
We continue to believe that the Q3 results and Q4 will provide positive catalysts for AOL, as
will the launch of AOL 5.0, which we currently expect to be in early October. (H. Blodget
9/20/99)
The AOL PHONES, issued by Tribune Co., trade at what we view as a highly attractive
6.7% discount to theoretical value and we continue to recommend them as an Equity
alternative. At $104-1/2 vs. $86 for AOL common, the issue has a theoretical value of 112.0
using model inputs of 40% annualized stock volatility (capped) and a credit spread of 119
bps over the five year Treasury. Our one year total return projections are +14.8%/-8.4% in
response to a price change by the common of +/-25%. Conversion premium is 27.9% and
the current yield is 3.0%. The PHONES are currently callable (call price = 166.4) and are
rated A3/A- by Moody?s/S&P. (9/20/99).
Bulletin
United States
20 September 1999
T. Anne Cox, CFA
First Vice President
Preston M. Harrington III
First Vice President
Today In Convertibles
AOL - Expect Strong Results for 3Q and 4Q
Merrill Lynch & Co.
Global Securities Research & Economics Group
Global Convertibles Research Group
RC#11326301
Convertibles