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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (6730)	9/20/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

There's an article in today's WSJ concerning future data transmission speeds of the competing technologies of CDMA, GSM, and TDMA. see Message 11307723

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (6730)	9/20/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: NY Stew	Respond to of 54805

Uncle Frank, From the value chain forming around gmst, it appears they are, at the least, in the bowling alley. Has anyone looked at sales of stb's licensing gmst to measure the tornado? Due to the litigation with GIC, SFA and Pioneer this is almost a meaningless exercise at present. The first GIC arb decision is due any day. This is the analog breach of contract charge to be followed by the digital box arb and then the patent infringement suits Gemstar filed in Federal Court. It is not as complex as it might appear as this can be summed up as the Cable Cartel vs Gemstar and a domino reaction will likely take place with a TV Guide settlement. TV Guide COO and President Peter Boylan III responded to an analyst's question last week that he was "cautiously optimistic" that an agreement with Gemstar would be reached within the next 30 days. Time is on Gemstar's side with the bigger picture IMO because after 7/1/00 you will see cable STBs at retail from Philips, Matsushita, Sony and others. Thomson is building the POD module into the TV itself which will mean that TVs will finally be 'cable ready' as long advertised. Regards Stew

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (6730)	9/20/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: Glenda King	Respond to of 54805

Uncle, <<< that is influencing me to consider diversification <g>. Would you say it is more or less influence than Aunt Nancy kickin' you in the butt? <vbg> Glenda

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (6730)	9/21/1999 12:10:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, Has anyone looked at sales of stb's licensing gmst to measure the tornado? Some interesting information can be garnered from Stephens's report. We can deduce that the number of digital cable households will grow about 6 million each year in the U. S. Similarly, the satellite distributors will add 2-3 million subscribers each year. However, there are 51-62 million total hardware units shipped annually in the U. S. that could include all of Gemstar's technologies. THe set-top boxes and satellite boxes add up to only 7-10 million, about 15% of the total hardware units. But the real issue is the number of hardware units that will support Gemstar's products which generate advertising and e-commerce revenue streams. Imagine if Qualcomm could leverage CDMA enhamcements to the point of commanding a share of the advertising and e-commerce revenue generated when sending that data over CDMA-based networks. That's what Gemstar does. They license the use of their guides and also share in the advertising and e-commerce revenue which the guides enable. My point is that though we can count the number of hardware units that contain Gemstar products (if that level of detail becomes available), the really important issue is that a typical hardware unit will last seven years. Imagine what the advertising and e-commerce revenue will be like in the 7th year of the hardware compared to the first. As much as I like to focus on hardware-based or guide-based tornado, I wonder if we shouldn't simply watch the advertising and e-commerce revenue which has already begun in a small way thanks to NBC. After all, Moore would tell us to focus on the revenue. By the way, if you haven't read the report, Stephens expects Gemstar's net margins to grow from 46% this year to 59% in 2004. I know you like those numbers. :) --Mike Buckley