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Non-Tech : Ashton Technology (ASTN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lostmymoney who wrote (2661)	9/21/1999 10:47:00 AM
From: PDL	Respond to of 4443

I know you didn't ask me, but if you need a pep talk and encouragement from MST (or anybody) about any investment, I would suggest selling and buying an index fund. JMHO.

To: lostmymoney who wrote (2661)	9/21/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: mst2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4443

Here's some food for thought as you look at the stock price's performance over the past 3-4 weeks: 1. ATG has $30 Million in cash, and no debt. So you can expand your tolerance window by at least a year of two if the current price action is making you a little sick to your stomach (as it is any normal person who has invested in the company and wants to see it do well). Also, contrary to Auric's predictions in May when he first arrived here (he predicted then that the company would run out of gas imminently), the company has more than enough unencumbered cash to absorb its burn rate for at least 1-2 years while the business plan plays itself out. Which means we will get to see full roll-out of VTS, eOX, and eMC (and a GA IPO, in all likelihood) -- and with VTS generating significant revenues to offset operating costs and generate some net operating income in the relatively near term (net of capital investments in new systems still under development). 2. Phase 2 of VTS rollout, which opens the system to a large percentage of 85 or so institutions, broker-dealers, third parties and floor brokers who are enrolled to use the system, begins in a matter of days (on or before October 1 from what I recall at the Annual Meeting). Which means the live execution testing period (Phase 1) is pretty much over and designed trading will be displaced by non-designed trading (which should give us a much better sense of system volumes pretty soon). I view that as a big positive. Deals like Sungard and MacGregor are the tip of the iceberg, and are very positive to the company. 3. An application for NASDAQ National Market System listing in the works. At the annual meeting, they said that this was a short term agenda item and priority, and something they qualify for with (in light of the cash received from the Rose Glen private placement). Analyst coverage should follow shortly after VTS is fully operational and NMS listing is achieved. Which should be positive to the stock price. 4. The volume of trading in this downward slide has been pretty light, with the exception of a few days - and the heaviest volume days have all been up days with one exception - which is to say that it looks like the same 1-2% of ATG's shares are being traded around -- core stockholders do not appear to be selling, most of the stock is in friendly hands, and a lot of the selling has been establishing short positions (which have increased radically since the beginning of August). The short selling has contributed to the downturn over the past 4 weeks in the short term price, as have margin calls and stop losses. And I am quite certain that there are longs who have run out of patience and sold also - maybe you are one of them. But the volume numbers do not lie-- if there was a real problem, the selling would be a lot more vigorous than it has been. And when Phase 2 volumes and announcements bring the stock price back, short covering will help make the rise that much more dramatic. I look at November as a month in which a lot of the anxiety now being felt by the friendly hands will be obliterated by positive price performance. 5. Though the stock price is down over 50% relative to mid-May (when it spiked well into the teens), it is still up over 500% relative to the first two months of 1999. I do not know where you got in - if it was at the high range, well, then you are surely being tested by this (as I was in 1996, holding stock bought in the teens as the stock price plummeted on much higher volumes with far less to be happy about in terms of short term factors that might help make the short term trend more tolerable -- it was a LOT grimmer then than it is now). When Auric arrived, the stock price was at 11 and he predicted an immediate downturn. It visited 17-18 a few weeks later, and the mid-teens several times since. Now it is in a down period, and his short position (assuming it was established in double digits) has made him some good money. But I would not want to be a short who established his or her position at 6 1/2 - 7 1/2, even today as the stock trades under 7. Just not enough short "upside" compared to the downside potential for the short -- any bets Suess and AG cover in the 6's while they have the chance? There is money to be made playing this as a short term trading stock (either way - short or "long") and there is money to made investing in this for the long term (long only). My personal view is that the long term investor approach will provide the greatest rewards over time -- if anything can be demonstrated by the past 4 months, it is that the stock price is very unpredictable, and timing in and out of the stock is a risky business. The current price represents, IMO, an excellent buying opportunity for those who have concluded that the company is worth investing in, and while I cannot rule out further meandering of the price in the immediate term (the next week or so), I personally feel as confident as ever that VTS will be a wonderful success, and that the stock price will take care of itself if that is true. All of this is my opinion - hope you figure out the right course for you. MST