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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dclapp who wrote (26503)	9/21/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Doug, I appreciate your view. I must respectfully disagree. You may well be right, we will know soon enough. BTW, you might want to read my latest post which gives some of my specific details for my call. BTW, those perma-bears always retreat to the history books but are non-specific in terms of market timing. That is not T/A, that is CYA, in my humble opinion. Matt

To: dclapp who wrote (26503)	9/21/1999 12:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

doug, the bulls will tell you that a/d, NH/NL, trannies and utilities as well as the RUT don't count, until the market declines sharply. then people will come out (after the fact) and say: 'but the warning signs were there...' note that i have always added a qualifier to my expectation of a blow-off: namely, that the mania hangs by a thread...a small event, such as today's trade data can sometimes precipitate a painful correction, especially in an enormously overvalued market full of 'crowded trades' (the narrow list of stocks in which capital has been concentrated). i don't know if today is the beginning of a larger correction, but if the deterioration of market internals is any guide, it probably is. regards, hb

To: dclapp who wrote (26503)	9/21/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 99985

Doug, <Finally, my "technician vote" goes to Raymond Bloch, who's convinced that the AD line and NH/NL really do count, and can back his opinion up with market history.> That technical analyst is Ralph Bloch, with Raymond James and Associates. He does know what he is talking about and is well respected but with a bearish bent. This crash I have been calling for is not going to occur without NDX, SOX IIX and DOT breaking supports. These "initial" supports revolve around 2,480 NDX, 530 SOX, 300 IIX and 610 DOT. Lower supports are posted on MITA. Meanwhile another one of my "other indices" UTIL is burnt toast 307 support. For the 4 indices above to display characteristics of fear and capitulation, it is going to be the DOW and SPX leading the way next to the crash... if it is to materialize as I have clearly stated. Selling and going into the close below DOW 10,550 and SPX 1,294 will bring capitulation the next market day. That could happen anytime now. Best Regards, J.T.