To: Big Idea who wrote (937 ) 9/22/1999 7:03:00 AM From: micny Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1341
"...and don't talk about CKFR anymore on the IFM thread! I feel obligated to, particularly when you post this kind of garbage! What the hell is so good about CKFR - they are $28 US off the 52 week high. J.P. Morgan reports: CHECKFREE: INVESTOR MEETING CONFIRMS CONFIDENCE IN CHECKFREE'S OPPORTUNITIES 08:34am EDT 20-Sep-99 J.P. Morgan (ARCHIBOLD, R. (1-212) 648-6231) CKFR September 20,1999 J.P. MORGAN SECURITIES INC. - EQUITY RESEARCH RAIMUNDO C. ARCHIBOLD JR, CFA (1-212) 648-6231; archibold_raimundo@jpmorgan.com John Reilly Walsh, CFA (1-212) 648-8028; walsh_john@jpmorgan.com CheckFree (BUY) INVESTOR MEETING CONFIRMS CONFIDENCE IN CHECKFREE'S OPPORTUNITIES; REITERATE BUY CKFR Earnings Per Share* P/E 52-Wk ------------------ ----- MkCap 9/17 Rge 6/98 06/99 06/00 1Q/00 1Q/99 06/99 06/00E Yld ($MM) ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- $41.63 $69-6 (0.05)A 0.04A (0.35)E (0.10)E (0.05)A NM NM 0.0% $2,331 Calendar 52-Wk ------------------ ----- MkCap 9/17 Rge 12/98 12/99 12/00 3Q/99 3Q/98 12/99E 12/00E Yld ($MM) ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- $41.63 $69-6 (0.25)A (0.16)E 0.00E (0.10)E 0.00A NM NM 0.0% $2,331 Note: Excludes nonrecurring items. Our reports and models are now available on the JPMS MorganWISE Website. Please contact your JPMS salesperson for more information. CheckFree's annual investor and analyst day last week confirmed our belief the market for electronic bill payment and presentment is CheckFree's to lose. Two significant announcements were disclosed at the event. First, the CEO of Wingspanbank.com (Bank One's (ONE/$36.88/Market Performer) stand alone Internet bank) announced CheckFree would be integrated into their bill payment and presentment offering over the next few months. Second, CheckFree's management indicated Excite@Home would be using CheckFree's services by the end of calendar 1999. The addition of these two clients further extends CheckFree's Internet distribution capabilities, as management executes its strategy of providing electronic bill presentment and payment services at any point of contact selected by the end user. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating and our $80 price target on the shares of CheckFree. We believe investor confidence has been renewed in CheckFree's management and its leadership position in what we believe is a very attractive market. Overview of the Meeting CheckFree's investor and analyst day comprised a series of presentations from CheckFree senior management, distribution partners (Wingspanbank.com) and billing partners (Countrywide and SBC Communications). The tone of CheckFree's management presentation was characteristically optimistic as delivered by CEO Pete Kight and President Pete Sinisgalli. Kight, the company's founder, hit on a theme of coopetition as CheckFree realizes they will not be the only bill payment and presentment provider but overall increased market acceptance of these services will ultimately benefit several participants. We believe this is particularly true in bringing billers online - CheckFree realizes its will not be able to work with every biller but has smartly targeted the largest billers and the largest metropolitan areas to make bill presentment a reality. Another focus of the CheckFree's two most senior executives was 4.6 sigma, or dial- tone quality service that equates to 99.9% system availability. CheckFree believes the quality of its service will set the standard by which others in the market will be judged, thereby differentiating its offering by capitalizing on the investment it has made in Genesis. CTO Ravi Ganesan built upon last year's "messyware" theme regarding the complexities of CheckFree's business to a 'You've Got Money" theme discussed below. Distribution As we have written in the past, CheckFree's third-party position will make it the vendor of choice for banks, non-bank financial and pure-Internet distribution partners. CheckFree's most visible competitor, TransPoint, could experience channel conflicts when attempting to attract distribution partners. With the announced addition of Wingspanbank.com and Excite to the launched Yahoo! (YHOO/Buy/$163.13) service, 350 financial institution, Quicken, Quicken.com and 8 of the top 10 brokerage firms as partners, CheckFree's distribution channel gives us a high degree of confidence in its ability to deliver 5 million subscriber by June 2000. Subscriber Growth We believe subscriber growth for CheckFree's traditional channel will be 5- 8% sequentially for its FY00 and the Internet distribution channel to add between 1.0 million and 1.2 million subscribers by June 2000. While we recognize consumer behavior (i.e., subscriber growth) is difficult to predict, the aforementioned breadth and depth of CheckFree's distribution capability gives us confidence in our expectations. Pay Anyone Capability, Seamless Tracking Infrastructure and Bill Presentment Technology Continues to Differentiate In addition to the unique distribution capability of CheckFree, the company's combination of a pay anyone capability, seamless tracking infrastructure and bill presentment technology allows it to differentiate its offering and be the vendor of choice for the markets largest participants. Competition During the past year we have witnessed competition in this space mainly in the form of press releases - with no material impact on CheckFree's business prospect nor our expectations for the company's future leadership position. TransPoint, still the most likely number two player the market, has signed only a handful of billers and hasn't extended its distribution capability. Spectrum (previously called The Exchange) caused a significant amount of confusion in the market with its press release in June. As investors have worked their way through the competitive landscape, CheckFree's shares have risen higher than the when The Exchange announcement was released. We believe investors must realize that CheckFree will not be the only electronic bill payment and presentment vendor, but market leadership and long-term dominance it theirs to lose. Bill Presentment - Catalyst for Consumer Adoption; Opportunity for Billers We continue to believe bill presentment will provide a catalyst to entice consumers to enroll in electronic bill payment. CheckFree's E-bill Version 3.0 provides billers with the opportunity to have a rich interactive session with a customer whenever a bill is viewed. Functions such as dynamic summary where a total will be re-calculated when a consumer enrolls in a program or disputes a charge are features we believe CheckFree's competitors a at least 12 months behind. CheckFree currently has contracts with 64 of the 150 largest billers in the U.S. of which 29 are live in production today. The company's stated goal is to sign an additional 55 billers and have 90 live billers by the end of its fiscal year in June 2000. You've Got Money CTO Ravi Ganesan provided attendees with insight into CheckFree's targeted market segments in 2000. The theme was to change the proposition to consumers from "You've Got Bills" to "You've Got Money" on the idea of the "stickiness" of a place on the Internet where consumers could go to "receive" payments. Ravi used the popularity of online auctions as an example of a transaction that is agreed upon online but fulfilled with a payment via a paper check. CheckFree will leverage its payment and tracking infrastructure to enable person-to-person electronic payments. The service is targeted to be launched in the spring of 2000, and we will look for more specifics on the offering as the launch approaches. (J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. acted as co- or lead-manager in an offering of securities for ONE within the past three years. The analyst and research associate holds a position in CKFR.) First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company. All rights reserved. 888.558.2500 END OF NOTEThey are behind when it come to EBPP. All they do is payment - their presentment is not great and they have lots of competition for payment. Leaps and bounds better than ANYTHING else out there! CheckFree Billers # Company 1 AEP American Electric Power 2 Ameren UE 3 Amoco 4 Avista Utilities 5 BellSouth Telecommunications 6 Boston Edison 7 Cellular One San Francisco 8 Chase Credit Card 9 Chase Mortgage 10 Connecticut Light & Power 11 Columbia Gas of Ohio 12 Consumers Energy 13 CUNA Mutual Group 14 Florida Power & Light 15 GPU Energy JCPL 16 GPU Energy METED 17 GPU Energy PENELEC 18 GTE 19 GTE Wireless 20 HomeSide Lending, Inc. 21 Houston Cellular 22 Illinois Power 23 MCI WorldCom 24 Nicor Gas 25 North Carolina Power 26 Portland General Electric 27 Qwest 28 Salt River Project 29 San Antonio Water System 30 Small Business Admin 31 Virginia Power 32 Western Massachusetts Electric <Banks are dropping them in the US on a daily basis because the offering is weak and provides no value to billers. Which banks in particular are you referring to? I Haven't heard of ANY!Compared to Emergis' eroute offering both the US version of Transpoint and Checkfree are a distant second. This HAS to be a joke!! I have heard there are international opportunities for Emergis for EBPP. Like CKFR doing New Zealand, and going to Europe with EDS? What international opportunities are you HEARING about for emergis?