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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: out_of_the_loop who wrote (980)	9/22/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Thanks, Howard. People do tend to confuse the terms "flu" and "cold". They are entirely different, and the cold is much more common the the flu. Thanks for pointing out how Rilenza gives credence to the science behind Zicam. Getting back to nicotine gum for a moment: My main points are: 1. There are two distinct markets: smoking cessation (~1.5 billion in 2007, and tobacco ($46 billion today). 2. Tobacco causes cancer. Smoking causes emphysema and other lung related diseases. Nicotine is NOT the culprit. 3. It has been suggested that smokers smoke because they want the effect of nicotine. 4. Society is moving towards a smoke-free environment, and it has gathered momentum the last 10 years. The move started with the airline industry, and has moved into a ban on smoking in many public areas. 5. A product that delivers the effects of nicotine without the health related risks, and societal disdain, could be very popular. 6. The market is sufficiently large, that even a very small penetration could result in very high sales. For example, only a 1% penetration equates to $460 million in sales. I think the market potential is so large, that it warrants further review. At a minimum, I think the company might want to conduct focus groups to see how consumers might accept a nicotine gum product. GumTech is targeting some very large markets. The OTC cold remedy market is valued at $2.3 billion. The smoking cessation market is valued at $600 million and growing. The smoking market, if they choose to get into it, is valued at $46 billion. All these market potentials can add up to a huge growth story. I remember reading something that Bill Gates said once about the software industry. I can't quote his exact words, but basically he said that the software industry is so large, that a small company can make a lot of money if they develop a product that people want. People who short growth companies such as GumTech better hope that the growth stops. Otherwise, they could end up short a company like Home Depot, Yahoo, Microsoft, or other countless companies that many wrote off when they were in their infancy.