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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32557)	9/22/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

From CSFB on BTB numbers. Jeff Semi-Equipment Book-To-BillFirst Phase of Expansion Cycle May Be Maturing Backlogs are Still Growing. Orders dipped 3% sequentially, but August's book/bill remained above parity at 1.08. Demand has leveled out at a high $1.4B level, up 150% Y/Y and 3X from Sept 98's trough. OEMs held shipments flat at $1.3B. Front-end is Plateauing. Process equipment's book/bill declined to 1.04 in August from 1.06 in July, as orders declined 3% to $1B. Expansive IC growth and rising DRAM prices are fueling demand from foundries and memory-makers, but IC manufacturers must digest recent purchases. Shipments were level at $989MM. Test Market is Buoyant. With back-end book/bill at 1.21, lead times for test gear continue to stretch. Demand for mixed signal testers is still surging, so tester orders slipped only 3% sequentially to $424MM, and shipments rose 3%. Pause in Growth May Be Transitory. After the steep upsurge in this cycle's initial expansion phase, orders may slow over the balance of 1999. Next year, look for equipment-intensive capital budgets to drive another uptick, as chipmakers fill 12+ vacant 200mm fabs and install initial 300mm pilot lines. As the cycle matures, new fab starts and 300mm production should boost equipment buys in 01/02.