Here's the Post's version:
U.S., Firms Growing Y2K Confident
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Eric
Lipton and Stephen Barr
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 22, 1999; Page A1
With 100 days to go until the world's computers face
their long-awaited moment of electronic judgment, most
large U.S. corporations and government agencies say
they have almost completed the painstaking and costly
chore of inoculating their machines against the
"millennium bug."
As a result, technology specialists, industry executives
and government officials alike now are increasingly
confident that ordinary Americans will enter the new
year with few electronic disruptions in crucial public
services, including electric power, water,
telecommunications, transportation, banking, food
distribution and important government operations.
The primary remaining doubt concerns one element
technicians can't fix: human nature. A rush to withdraw
large amounts of cash or to fill cars with gasoline or
pantries with food could temporarily deplete
grocery-store shelves, automated teller machines,
pharmacies and gas stations.
Overall, everyone from White House Y2K czar John A.
Koskinen to workers who have spent the past three
years in windowless cubicles, trolling through
million-line computer programs for potential date
glitches, continues to compare the impact of Y2K to that
of a powerful winter storm: severe -- but short-term --
disruptions for a limited number of communities.
A Senate report scheduled for release today predicts
that "the Y2K problems will hit sporadically . . . and
will cause more inconveniences than tragedies." The
report goes on to say that "no one knows for sure exactly
where those outages will be or how long they will last."
But it points out that many small companies in the United
States, as well as foreign businesses and governments,
have been slow to address the year 2000 glitch.
As far as the Washington area is concerned, corporate
leaders, federal officials, and state and local
governments say they are largely prepared.
"We can handle Y2K today," said Bill Mistr, Virginia
Power's Y2K coordinator, noting that 81 of the
company's 84 power-generation facilities are ready --
enough to provide electricity for all of the utility's
customers.
Potomac Electric Power Co. says it has completed
repairing and testing all of its critical computer systems.
Bell Atlantic Corp. says it, too, is finished with fixing
its "mission-critical" systems and plans to spend the
remaining 100 days working on other, less important
computers. The region's two largest banks, Bank of
America and First Union Corp., have wrapped up Y2K
repairs on crucial systems and are devoting the rest of
the year to additional testing. Metro and the region's
largest water utilities also say they are essentially
Y2K-proof.
"We're ready to go," said Skip Patterson, executive
director of Bell Atlantic's Y2K office. "And there's
nothing we're seeing in all the tests we've been
conducting that diminishes our confidence."
Virginia and Maryland and the region's 14 major local
governments also profess a growing degree of Y2K
bravado. Only Alexandria, the District, and Anne
Arundel and Fauquier counties report being less than 90
percent complete on their critical Y2K work. Even in
the District, where the repair effort did not begin in
earnest until 15 months ago, officials say the new year
should come without chaos.
Even if everything isn't finished on time, the city has
built an extensive web of backup systems. Police
officers, for example, will be stationed at 120 locations
across the city to take emergency requests for service in
person, in case the dispatching system or telephones
fail.
"There will be a climax at midnight, when we go, 'Five,
four, three, two, one,' " said D.C. Mayor Anthony A.
Williams (D). "But it won't be a climax of all the lights
going out and utter chaos. . . . All the processes,
services and systems people expect in our modern
society here in the District are going to continue."
Years-Long Effort Predictions that New Year's Day
2000 will pass without widespread disruptions across
the nation come only after an unprecedented
mobilization of people, money and executive attention.
For the past two years, large corporations have each
reassigned hundreds of workers to test systems, hired
dozens of technical consultants to reprogram machines
and purchased millions of dollars' worth of new
electronic equipment.
The year 2000 problem, commonly known as Y2K,
stems from the fact that millions of computers, as well
as microchips in many electronic devices, were
programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a
year, assuming that the first two would be 1 and 9. On
Jan. 1, unprepared machines will understand the year
"00" not as 2000 but as 1900, potentially causing them
to shut down or stop working properly.
Estimates of what U.S. corporations have spent to deal
with Y2K vary widely, but most agree it is the largest
single technology investment in history. The Federal
Reserve has placed the price tag at $50 billion, and
some industry analysts believe the actual figure is more
than twice as much. All told, some analysts predict the
global repair bill will reach $500 billion. The federal
government, which has scores of antiquated systems that
needed intensive repair work, now estimates its bill
will total $8.3 billion.
"This has been an enormously costly, complex and
time-consuming effort," said Dan Zivney, Y2K director
at Fairfax-based Mobil Corp., which has devoted $185
million and 250 employees since 1997 to its date-repair
project. The task included testing and fixing thousands
of computers and electronic devices -- such as digital
temperature controllers in oil refineries -- at more than
150 locations around the world. Then there was the
challenge of monitoring the progress of 5,000 other
firms that supply products to Mobil.
The petroleum giant has now finished its repair work
and is focusing on "contingency plans" -- what to do if,
despite all the testing, some computers fail in the new
year," Zivney said. "With the myriad elements of the
Y2K problem, it would be foolish on my part to say that
we've captured and fixed every single thing. But the task
now is to ensure that if we have a blip on the screen, it's
not going to cause a disruption."
Zivney said Mobil, like many other corporations and
government agencies, plans to spend the next 100 days
conducting additional testing and drills to simulate
problems and run through manual override procedures.
"We feel very confident about where we are," he said.
"But we're not going to stop preparing."
The same sort of progress is being reported by firms in
every corner of corporate America. In the grocery
industry, Giant Food Inc. and Safeway Inc. largely have
finished their Y2K repairs and also now are focusing on
contingency planning. So are CVS Pharmacy Inc. and
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. In the telecommunications
industry, AT&T Corp. and MCI WorldCom Inc. have
completed the technical work and are concentrating on
"business resumption plans" in case of unanticipated
problems. And in the financial services industry,
brokerage houses including Merrill Lynch & Co. and
Salomon Smith Barney have told federal regulators that
they are done with reprogramming and testing their
computers.
Industry analysts say they are heartened that so many
companies actually have met their targets, particularly
because computer-related projects have a reputation for
missing deadlines.
"The results are very reassuring," said Ann K. Coffou,
an analyst with the Giga Information Group, a consulting
firm in Cambridge, Mass. "This gives them more time to
find and prepare for anything they may have
overlooked."
Quick Turnaround
Eighteen months ago, congressional investigators and
technology experts figured the Federal Aviation
Administration, long known for botching computer
projects, would never finish its Y2K work in time. The
agency's repairs were so far behind schedule and so
mismanaged, congressional auditors warned in early
1998, that many airline flights in the year 2000 would be
delayed or canceled.
This summer, the FAA silenced its critics. The agency
wrapped up its Y2K repairs in June and staged a public
test to show that air-traffic control systems would work
in 2000. The story has been the same throughout most of
the federal government.
With more than 6,340 mission-critical systems to fix and
repairs to vital programs, such as Medicare, off to a late
start, congressional Republicans last year gave the
Clinton administration a "D" for its Y2K efforts.
But the government mounted a late rally, finishing the
bulk of its work in March, months ahead of many large
corporations. Earlier this month, the White House
budget office reported that 97 percent of the
government's critical systems were Y2K ready. The
Senate report released today notes that "most of the
federal government is crossing the finish line."
The government's mobilization has been led by
Koskinen, a presidential assistant who is chairman of
the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion.
Koskinen created 25 working groups that included
executives from corporations and trade associations to
identify and encourage Y2K repair work not only inside
the bureaucracy but also with states and localities that
electronically exchange data with the government.
"While we're not guaranteeing perfection anywhere, we
are very confident that whatever difficulties are
generated by the Y2K problem won't be the result of the
failure of federal systems," Koskinen said yesterday.
'A $10,000 Bet'
Assuming power, telephone and other major utilities do
not falter, the region's state and local governments are
nearly unanimous in their high level of confidence that
there will not be major disruptions in their operations as
a result of the Y2K bug.
Virginia's Century Date Change Initiative office reports
that as of the beginning of August -- after an estimated
$200 million in work -- repairs were complete on 99
percent of the systems needed to support 319 essential
state services. From the state police to the Department
of Motor Vehicles, Virginia has completed its repairs
and testing and returned most of the now Y2K-ready
systems to service, state officials said.
Maryland's self-assessment suggests that it remains
somewhat behind Virginia: Ninety-four percent of its
critical software systems were rated as "compliant" as
of the start of September, after an estimated $106
million investment by the state. The remaining work
includes items such as a vendor-payment system, backup
generators on emergency radio towers and building fire
alarms.
But overall, Maryland officials are extremely
optimistic.
"I will make you a $10,000 bet that the state of
Maryland will not have a major outage of services that
will cause a loss of life or major property damage,"
said Frank J. Stech, deputy director of the Maryland
Year 2000 Program Management Office. "That is how
confident I am."
Local government officials are similarly sanguine.
Fairfax reports that 98 percent of its central computer
systems are fixed, tested and back in service. Prince
George's County puts the figure at 99 percent;
Montgomery, 98 percent.
The District, which began its Y2K repair effort years
after neighboring state and local governments, is
convinced that residents and visitors -- including the
thousands expected on the Mall for the millennium party
-- will not be affected.
To date, about 77 percent of the city's computer systems
have been fixed, with a smaller portion also tested. The
remaining repair and testing work -- in areas such as
Medicaid and unemployment insurance -- is scheduled
to be completed by the end of November.
The District may have "a handful of short interruptions"
in its computer systems, said Chief Technology Officer
Suzanne J. Peck. But because it is on such a tight repair
schedule, the District has also developed one of the
nation's most extensive sets of contingency plans,
meaning there will be a backup system ready to kick in.
D.C. General Hospital, for example, will have as many
as 175 extra staff members on site in case computer
functions need to be handled manually.
"No matter where this slender handful [of failures]
occurs, we will be ready for it," Peck said.
Man and Machine
Despite all work -- from the private sector to federal,
state and local governments -- officials offer no
guarantees.
Overseas, particularly in Russia, China, Eastern Europe,
and developing nations in Africa, Asia and South
America, severe disruptions are considered likely. In
the United States, concern remains about some of the
nation's local governments and small and medium-size
businesses that may have failed to take the Y2K threat
seriously.
Such failures could gradually slow the supply of goods
to large corporations, said Edward Yourdon, a software
engineer, consultant and author of several Y2K books.
As a result, he still predicts Y2K will have an effect on
the U.S. economy over the coming year.
The consumer-reaction question also remains, although
many large retail businesses, anticipating a surge in
demand at the end of the year, are planning to keep extra
inventory in their warehouses.
"Our biggest concern at this point isn't technical, it's
human," said Lisa McCue, spokeswoman for the
Grocery Manufacturers of America, a Washington-based
trade group that represents food producers. "It's difficult
to predict today what consumers will do -- just how
much extra bottled water and milk and bread they will
want -- at the end of December."
Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah), chairman of the
Senate's Y2K committee, said he was "optimistic about
the huge national systems" but remained concerned that
individual companies, local communities and "the
stand-alone hospital that doesn't have the money or
muscle to get its problems under control" could be at
risk of Y2K disruptions. He also noted that much of the
information available regarding Y2K preparedness is
based on self-reported data.
Still, Bennett said, "the Y2K problem is not going to be
across the country but across the street."
Businesses and governments generally are spending the
remaining 100 days checking and rechecking their
systems and backup plans. And they are walking a fine
line -- urging consumers to behave rationally while also
suggesting that they make modest preparations in the
event of any problems.
Thousands of executives and technology specialists will
be at work across the nation on New Year's Eve,
monitoring computer systems as they enter the new year.
Even without severe Y2K glitches, trouble could sprout:
A surge in telephone calls just after midnight to see if
the phones work, for example, could translate into busy
signals that are unrelated to the Y2K bug.
To some extent, if the Y2K mobilization proves to be as
successful as some predict, the final reaction may be a
public questioning what all the hype was about.
"We are already starting to hear, 'You spent millions of
dollars and nothing happened, what were you doing,' "
said Bette H. Dillehay, Virginia's Y2K chief. "Well, that
is only because we spent the millions of dollars. It is no
mistake."
¸ 1999 The Washington Post Company |
