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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (26679)	9/22/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Want to make sure at least SOMEONE is making money :) I added to the JOF long a little while ago, and bought CMGI at the close yesterday. So, here are you two highest probability shorts <g>.

To: Les H who wrote (26679)	9/22/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

DEUTSCHE BANK'S WALTER: FED, ECB 25BP RATE HIKES IN JAN IF Y2K SMOOTH By Andreas Cremer BERLIN (MktNews) - The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) will both raise official interest rates in January by 25 basis points, possibly even 50 basis points, provided that transition to the year 2000 occurs without major financial hiccups, according to Norber Walter, chief economist with Deutsche Bank Research. "A hike in U.S. and ECB interest rates by 25 basis points (each) next January is as sure as fate. Even (a hike by) 50 basis points can't be ruled out but that's my personal view," Walter told Market News International in an interview on the fringes of a conference late Tuesday. Thus, the ECB will "very likely" refrain from hiking rates in the remainder of 1999 since demand for liquidity ahead of the Y2K problem may rise "enormously." Given this environment, an ECB rate hike could spark "panic reactions" in financial markets, Walter said. "The millenium change is a major factor. If the ECB, in that situation, pours oil on the fire, it could bring about the panic reactions it is actually supposed to avert," he noted. "In case of doubt, the ECB will therefore decide against hiking rates ahead of the millenium change," he added. Walter showed himself displeased with a forecast made earlier this week by Deutsche Bank's global markets group in London, which had raised the probability of an ECB rate hike in the fourth quarter this year to 35%, from 20%. This view, he lamented, grossly neglected the importance of the Y2K problem. On inflation, Walter seemed composed despite continuously upturning prices for crude oil, saying that headline inflation in Euroland would remain below 2% next year. Labor unions, regardless of the German IG Metall engineering union's recently aggressive tone, will "by and large" accept "moderate" wage pacts.