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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (26681)	9/22/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Max, i agree that a bubble cannot pop unless it is spotted. regards, hb

To: LTK007 who wrote (26681)	9/22/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: still learning	Respond to of 99985

The difference between the wall of worry and the wall of death is sometimes difficult to distinguish. In retrospect, a blow off rally can be a renewed bull market. In answer to Matthew, yes the whole country can be right about a meltdown (though it's really not the whole country as many are still buying today) but many may not act on their inclinations. Lots of folks, myself included, now sit on long positions even though we fear a meltdown. Though I fear it, I'm also not prepared to go 100% cash as some suggest, and have gone to a more defensive position (oils, commodities) without withdrawing from the mkt. As to my more risky (tech) holdings, it is tough to call the top. I left more money on the table by pulling out of BVSN, than I made on almost all combined investments this year. Does that mean I'm buying in at $130? No. But neither am I ready to sell ICGE at $100. Tough calls all around. Market sentiment doesn't aways translate into action for the indiv investor. Instead, some may opt for a more balanced course (buy oils to counter techs, e.g.) Those playing the indices (don sew, et al) have a different system. Overall I've made 200% this year alone on a substantial portfolio. I'm not prepared to ride that back down, but I don't think panic selling without regard to tax consequences is the answer. I believe many will wait through Oct, even if it's a tough month to see what happens. Another rate rise won't be a catastrophe, though it may throw a signif. amt of cold water on the mkt short term. Among indiv. investors, played out a million times over, these decisions are what will really influence the market. Of course brokers are worried -- how can it continue? But you could've said the same thing 20 times (and probably did) over the past 3-5 years.