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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (68041)	9/22/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

better pop it now than later. I thought it already was later. <g>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (68041)	9/22/1999 1:28:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Heinz, what aggravates me is the role the gov't seems to be taking in perpetuating this bubble when they should know better. Marc Faber made an interesting point that during its bubble days Japan was closer to a new era than our new paradigm. I have thought that myself and i would add that the US boom during the 20s was the closet to a new era the world has ever seen .Mike

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (68041)	9/22/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

The Five Stages of Financial Collapse [Sep 22 1999] A major financial meltdown will be a shock, dawning on the public consciousness like the stages of grief (in the 1960s, Elizabeth Kubler Ross wrote the book "Denial of Death" where she identified "Five Stages of Grief": Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, & Acceptance). Denial It will be difficult for many people to get past the denial stage, as, in the light of the prevailing bullish orthodoxy, the crisis seems too improbable. The "buy on the dips" mentality will persist until the losses are too great. The signs, such as the two years plus fall in the A/D line, the poor market breadth, a majority of common stocks under their 200 day moving average, rising interest rates, insane P/E ratios, etc., will be ignored as long as possible. Anger (& Fear) Once people become aware of how serious the problem is, it becomes easy to rush to anger towards all of the people that got us into this position. Why weren't we warned about this in the financial news (they should have come here)? Why didn't the Fed / the government / the Bank of England / Japan / Bundesbank etc. do something (they have probably been busting a gut behind the scenes)? Denial of self-responsibility remains. Bargaining As Homer Simpson once said: "you gotta get me outta this. I'll make it worth your while". People rush around trying to find a way out. Unfortunately, there is no simple solution at this stage. This stage explains why people don't immediately rush out of the stock market. They look for short term alternatives, such as the narrowing leadership in the market indices, or fly-by-night internet IPOs. Depression In this difficult stage, the individual battles to come to terms with their predicament, but as soon as progress appears to be made, something goes wrong and they find themselves still in depression. Some people may do something unwise... others are delayed in making appropriate plans. In the macro economy, the word applies as it does to individuals. Acceptance Acceptance of the situation will allow people to make suitable preparations, such as weighing up the alternatives to stock market investing. The management of finances and lifestyles in the coming bear market will require a step change in attitude. Those who can reach this stage before most other people hit the panic button will find it to their advantage. Government agencies at last begin to do something to resolve the problems with the economy, businesses start to correct malinvestments, insolvent banks are wound up. Investment styles that are contrarian to the stock market (commodities, precious metals, bear market funds, gold mining stocks) do well. However, the delay in passing through the stages of acceptance means that such investment arenas do not necessarily immediately take off when the bull market collapses. Remain vigilant to assess the situation on a case-by-case, due diligence basis. found at users.dircon.co.uk