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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Societe Anonyme/No Pennies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: InvestLady who wrote (98809)	9/22/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: If only I'd held	Respond to of 119973

Re: BIKR, Very good info here.....Don Duffy is the only one that sold any stock. Can you think of any reasons why he might have sold?? Put kids thru college, buy a new home, etc..etc.. Who else sold?? The only form 4 is from Don Duffy for 102,000 shares. The rest are all sitting there expired. I think you are reading a little too much into insider sales in this example. CPQ, well, that's a different story. It is my beleif that Pfeifer, or however you spell his name, was operating that company on a personal level. That's what DEC was all about. After he did what he set out to do, I don't think he really cared what happened. That's just a hunch I've had though. Insiders at CPQ knew things were heading south and they were the first to run for the exit door. But BIKR, has been far from heading South. In fact, they are delivering record revenues lately and that trend will likely continue. Hey, they were a BB stock 2 years ago. They are moving up in the world. This came out today although I was not aware of it until just now. wbn.com Cyberstation WBN-BIKR will be activated today featuring WBN Contributing Analyst Bob Thayer's Institutional Analysis. Bob's scenario for next year assumes that sale of the Company's five money losing retail stores will be completed by Dec99 which will position it as a pure manufacturer averaging 225 bikes output per month. That translates to revenues of $41mm on which it should be able to realize a gross profit of 30%, EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $5.5mm, and net of $0.82 EPS (non-taxed due to carryforwards) on 5.2mm shares. Warrants and conversion of a preferred will lead to some dilution, but not much as some $12mm of new equity would be generated to replace cost of borrowed capital currently at 12%. It works this way: if 3mm warrants exercised at an average of 4 bring in $12mm and that fresh capital replaces loans of $12mm on which 12% ($1.5mm) is being paid, then each of the 3mm shares issued in effect immediately "earns" circa $0.50 EPS. That translates to a dilution of the $0.82 EPS estimated for 2000 to $0.70. WBN's valuation scenario calls for an 18 month target of 7-10 on the stock which is to say 10-15x the $0.70 estimate diluted for the warrants. As for analyst Thayer, by way of introduction here's his bio: Robert Thayer, CFA, has 20 years experience as a professional financial analyst. With an emphasis on preparation of investment research for institutional investors, his background includes analysis of equities, high-yield corporate debt, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, and debt of governmental issuers. As a sell-side analyst for regional investment banking boutiques, Mr. Thayer's perspective has been enhanced through work on a wide variety of industries. He has conducted due diligence, performed valuations, and prepared written investment research on small-cap companies engaged in paper and forest products, building products, construction, foods, grocery, chemicals, oil and gas, hotel and leisure, and real estate. Prior to entering the world of finance, Mr. Thayer spent three years as a Systems Engineer for IBM's Service Bureau Company, where he developed end-user applications for cash management, credit analysis, and investment banking analysis. Mr. Thayer holds a B.A. degree in economics and mathematics from the University of Colorado and performed graduate work in econometrics at the University of Wisconsin. A firm belief that rigorous fundamental research is the key to long- term investment success forms the basis for a deeply felt enthusiasm for the discipline of financial analysis. Mr. Thayer is based out of Denver. END Well, sorry for the long post. I was bottom fishing this morning and BIKR has been in my sites for some time. I liked the stock at 3 but wasn't aware of the convertibles at the time so I sold to find out more and see what kind of effect it would have on the stock. I got to buy it at an all time historical low. If it makes a new one, I will be down, but I won't be out. This company has been selling a lot of damn motorcycles.