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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Len Hannegan who wrote (20141)	9/22/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: Rusty Johnson	Respond to of 64865

Bill's big roll-out Is Microsoft a computing dinosaur struggling to adjust to the Internet or an unstoppable juggernaut? More of the second -- but the road is getting rougher economist.com ... If the predictions for Windows 2000 prove correct, Microsoft will seem more the juggernaut than the dinosaur that optimistic rivals talk of. Yet not all the elements of Microsoft's strategy appear as solid as the prospects for Windows 2000. The consumer versions of Windows that will succeed Windows 98 will have to be easier to use and cheaper than today's product. Hardware components and the prices of consumer PCs are tumbling so fast that the $40 per copy that Microsoft is thought to charge its best industry customers is increasingly hard to justify. The still-intimidating complexity of the PC, a failing to which Microsoft readily admits, contrasts unfavourably with the new generation of Internet-ready games consoles, such as Sony's PlayStation 2, which will be launched next year. Nor is it clear that Microsoft will be more than a bit-player in the exploding market for Internet access and information devices. Its Windows CE operating system is fine in podgy sub-notebook computers, but it has been trounced by the Palm operating system in the market for smaller devices. Meanwhile, the Symbian joint venture between Psion, Nokia, Ericsson, Matsushita and Motorola seems likely to provide the dominant operating system for smart mobile phones. As for the billions that Microsoft is pouring into cable and telecoms, that could turn out to be either an inspired move or a fruitless attempt to buy influence. Has this investment had any effect on the pace at which consumer broadband services are rolled out? Even if Windows CE gets into more set-top boxes, companies such as AT&T have no intention of falling into a dependency relationship on Microsoft like that of PC makers. Mr Raikes says that, by working with partners on pilot services, Microsoft is "accelerating its learning." And even though Mr Ballmer appears to be embracing the notion of applications hosting on the web, this is a model that spells danger for Microsoft. Such software may well be offered free by rivals, such as Sun with its new personal productivity suite, with the money being made up on services?an area where Microsoft is weak. The threat to Office may be distant, but it is real. The broader question for Microsoft is whether being the most accomplished fast follower the world has seen is any longer an advantage, given the speed with which innovative ideas can be brought to market on the Internet. The reorganisation over which Mr Ballmer presided earlier this year has pulled Microsoft closer to its customers and reinvigorated its best managers by giving them more autonomy. It is, however, a 30,000-strong company with bureaucratic habits and a penchant for fixing problems by throwing blood and money at them. That may have worked for Windows 2000, but it won't always.