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Technology Stocks : International FiberCom, Inc. (NASDAQ- IFCI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: david james who wrote (2992)9/23/1999 2:54:00 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3541
 
The mistake that Kealy made, I believe, is in setting up high earnings expectations.

This is exactly their problem. If the guy had any Wall Street sense, he would have told the analysts that follow the company that EPS would be about 40 cents in 1999, and then come in at about 44 cents, in other words, EXCEED EXPECTATIONS! Instead, he continually sets expectations high, then changes his minds when he realizes the company is not going to earn what he claims. If you ask me, he's crazy for even saying the company should earn 70 cents in 2000. Why not say 55 cents, and then do better than expected each quarter? As it is, no one believes what he says about earnings anymore.

Revenue growth is great, but the stock goes nowhere until we see real earnings improvement, not claim about improvements in the future.



To: david james who wrote (2992)9/23/1999 4:34:00 AM
From: Charly  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 3541
 
"Consider the following scenario. Suppose the company is heading towards 3rd quarter after tax earnings of $5 mill - around 17 cents. However, AT&T gives them a call and says that they have another $80 mill in contracts if they can handle it. Suppose that Kealy must decide whether to A) say no thank you - I want to show the shareholders nice profits or B) spend $3 million to train another
300 workers at $10,000/ worker - and take the big contract."

Well, consider the following scenario:

Suppose the company is heading towards 3rd quarter after tax earnings of $2,5 mill - around 8 cents. A good friend (Snake) gives me a call and says that I can triple my money in 1 year with SUN and I say: No, thank you. I wait till Joe get things straight. I'm patient. And if he needs another 3 years to train his workers (OR WHATEVER!!) I don't mind. Ok, I loose 2 Mio $ gains with SUN but it's nice to see that IFCI's revenue doubles every year. That gives me a real good feeling.

Charly





To: david james who wrote (2992)9/28/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Charly  Respond to of 3541
 
"Kealy is still saying around 50 cents (at or near), but I am dropping my expectations this quarter to 13 cents"

Drop it to 0,02 cents !

Based on Kealy's comments (comfortable with 0,15 c in Q3
just 2 WEEKS !!!!!!! ago) this could indeed turn out to be some
lawsuit stuff within 4 weeks. No more excuses. I call it misleading the Investors.

What is 50 cents or near ? 8+8+2 = 18 cents. If you consider a
loss of 5 cents for Q4
(onetime paying for 500 shovels or whatever; revenue unfortunately delayed 1 or 2 Quarters) you have 13 cents for 99.

Charly