To: Jenna who wrote (62683 ) 9/23/1999 1:18:00 AM From: puborectalis Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 120523
Wednesday, September 22, 1999 Published at 15:29 GMT 16:29 UK Business: The Economy World growth recovers - IMF The effects of the Asian crisis are wearing off The world economy is returning to growth, although problems remain in Japan and Russia, according to the twice-yearly forecast from the International Monetary Fund. The forecast says the world economy appears to be on the mend, following the global slowdown in the wake of the Asian crisis and the subsequent turmoil in Russia and Brazil. "Global economic and financial conditions have improved markedly, after the turbulence in emerging markets in 1997-98," it said. The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3% this year and 3.5% next year - a sharp improvement on its predictions just six months ago, and better than the 2.5% growth in 1998, the worst this decade. "For all the Asian crisis economies, growth projections in 1999 have been revised up significantly and the economic downturns in Brazil and Russia have been shallower than expected earlier," the report noted. But it warned that a slowdown in the United States, which was not balanced by an upturn in Japan and Europe, could have serious consequences for Asia and Latin America. US growth puzzle One of the central concerns underlying the IMF's assessment of global prospects is the United States. The US economy has been growing very strongly for several years and the IMF says that has played a critically important role in moderating the effects of international crises over the last two years. But the Fund says the rate of growth will have to slow in order to prevent inflation and to contain the deficit in US trade with the rest of the world, which has been breaking all records as it approaches $300bn this year. The IMF thinks it likely that the US will achieve what it calls a soft landing. It also thinks that Japan and Western Europe will sustain the recoveries that seem to be under way. But if they don't, the improvements that have started in some of the crisis-hit countries of Asia - notably South Korea and Thailand - might be in doubt, and much of Latin America would also be vulnerable. A more abrupt slowdown in the United States is also possible. The report notes that high share prices and low savings by American individuals point to strains that create such a danger. Asia on the mend The IMF suggests that at last there are signs of recovery in Japan, where the economy contracted by 3% last year. It says Japan will grow this year by 1%. But consumer confidence is weak and businesses are still highly indebted. A further rise in the yen would also damage exporters. The economies of South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia have enjoyed a remarkable turnaround, while even Indonesia is showing some signs of recovery. The IMF is also optimistic about India, where economic growth should hit 5.7% for the second year in a row. But it warns that Pakistan - still awaiting an IMF loan - requires more economic reform, especially in the area of tax collection. There is considerable uncertainty about China, where the report says that despite weathering the Asian economic crisis, the strains are now showing in the form of falling prices and rising unemployment. Russia The IMF says there are some signs that Russia's economic decline is being reversed, with higher oil prices and improved export prices following the devaluation of the rouble. But it warns that without further action to strengthen the budget, the fragile economic situation could deteriorate quickly. The IMF is under pressure to withhold further loans to Russia after it was revealed that billions of dollars had been transferred to secret bank accounts in New York. US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says that there should be further safeguards against corruption before any more loans should be released. But IMF chief Michel Camdessus says the IMF's strategy towards Russia should continue unchanged. On balance, the IMF's assessment of the world economic outlook now is rosier than seemed likely a year ago when Russia was deep in crisis and Brazil was on the brink. Even so, it says there is a serious risk that the outcome could be significantly worse than its main forecast.