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Non-Tech : PPD (Pre-paid Legal Services) on the move -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: keith who wrote (728)9/23/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 801
 
Roy Blumberg (who wrote the CBS MarketWatch piece, which I feel is superficial and misleading) tells me that he reviewed the piece with a board member of PPD. This evidently gives him confidence. And Thomas gives you confidence.

This is an evangelical company, with evangelical leaders. That executives and leaders are getting caught up in it means little to me. A lot of very intelligent people do very stupid things in the name of religion, too. Commissions advanced were up 48% during the first six months, while revenues climbed 19%. The growth is decelerating. There's a clue in the rah-rah press releases as to why one might expect even business leaders to get caught up in this.

There's a reason the short position is so huge. Just remember that shorts are rarely wrong on the fundamentals -they're usually just 1-2 years early. And their covering can drive the stock to an even more compelling short - but by then they can't afford it.

I'll give you that the stock can accelerate to old highs or even beyond. But something's going to give. It's approaching 65-70X normalized cash earnings while new member recruitment has leveled off.

It'll be interesting to see when the short interest drops off - I bet there'll be some insider selling soon thereafter.

Good investing,
Mike