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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael M who wrote (55747)	9/23/1999 7:37:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108807

Re Timor, take a look at this picture news.bbc.co.uk and tell me what kind of a reaction you think this sort of stuff is going to get in Indonesia. Read the words too, paying special attention to what's between the lines. Scary. There's lots of good stuff on this site; if you want to check one place 3-4 times a week and keep track of Timor, BBC Asia is the place to do it. My own guess is that nobody is going to try anything serious as long as the Aussie force (the only national contingent that matters) is bunched up in Dili. But when it moves into the countryside, it will be very vulnerable to ambush, booby-trap, and sniper attacks by the militias, who will suddenly turn out to be much better armed and trained than expected (many will be troops in militia garb). There will be no attempt to take or hold territory, only to inflict casualties, and see how much the intervening countries are willing to take. The international force is lightly armed, with no adequate air cover or artillery, and you know what that means. The Indonesians know very well that they don't have to defeat the force, they just have to make the intervention costly enough to raise questions on the home front. I'm glad I'm not there.