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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (614)	9/23/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Billy	Respond to of 4187

You say "no current inflation" !!! That kind of thinking by the investing public is exactly what's going to eventually break this market. To the contrary, Inflation is NOT dead. It's just hiding in equity prices. Sooner or later the FED's going to find it and watch out. In fact, they may already have found it and that is why they'll probably raise rates again in Oct. How long do you think that it'll take for the stealth oil shock we're having right now to work it's way to the front page? We'll correct for now then have a reasonable holiday rally. The Internuts and "E" stocks will do well. Everyone will then wake up Sat. morning, Jan 1st, flush the toilet to see if their water is still on, check the cash balance in their trading accounts and then all rush back into the market on Monday morning. Jan. 2000 will be one of the great, true January affects of all time. But watch out after that !!! Buy the E-brokers in early Q1 to play the surge in trading volumes, but don't overstay your welcome.

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (614)	9/24/1999 12:33:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4187

DJA and Naz tank at 1400 today.Should have kept my mouth shut at 1322. Sorry guys;we won't le this happen again, :) TA Message #614 from Tunica Albuginea at Sep 23 1999 1:22PM mact, this may be a classical bear trap. i.e., we are in early correction or ?small bear market. The market looks to the future ( 6 months ahead ) not now. What does it see? -no current inflation but.. -steady pressures caused by rising wholesale prices ( they predate rising consumer prices). steady, higher,oil prices, going into winter. increasing wages: UAW won wage increase plus lifetime work guarantee ( memories of Japan 1986? ) increasing Health care. This will be big. HealthSouth, the premier perhaps hospital chain in America just ditched all their National HMO contracts: " not enough money". Next step: premiums will increase. Asian recovery:more oil consumption -Fewer workers:"want signs all over".Next thing-->higher wages. -Increase Yen strength and reciprocal dollar weakness Japan is starting to cut fat V.US EL Presidente vetoed balanced budget: visions of more tax and spend? Yen may become more attractive in future. Japanese will stop funding out debt.We will have to raise interest rates to pay for our big credit card debt/national debt. competition to our industry from cheaper Japanese products from leaner Japanese workforce. -Y2K fears -" Fears of October Boogie Man". I am still staying put and watching the horizon daily for any sails suggesting smooth sailing, TA @asTheMarketChurnsWithIndigestion.com