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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (78189)	9/23/1999 2:25:00 PM
From: Danny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Just had a wild thought, and please dont flame me. I find it strange that nobody likes KO at this level. LOL:)

To: Rob S. who wrote (78189)	9/23/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: John Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Rob S. Shut up. Pay no attention to Rob. This guys is no fun. Xmas is coming, let's have a party... We wish we a merry christmas, we wish we a merry christmas...

To: Rob S. who wrote (78189)	9/24/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: John Donahoe	Respond to of 164684

<Negative breadth simply means that there are going to be a lot of losers in our transition to the "new economy".> RE: That is THE assumption that is already built into the market. There are many arguments to the contrary. The one contrary interpretation that I keep hearing over and over on CNBC is that the technical indicator A/D line is weak and based on history is bearish. Of course being a "new economy" bull I say to myself "but of course, we are in a new era, why should we expect otherwise?" RE: . I think the divergence between the darling stocks and sectors and the overall market is greatly exaggerated by a number of factors: 1] The popularity of on-line trading favors Internet (on-line) stocks. Kind of makes sense. Maybe people who trade online are more likely to understand the new economy and it's implications. 2] The large increase in capital invested in mutual funds over the years of the great bull market favors the higher cap and darling stocks and sectors and largely ignores the rest of the market. "Darling" stocks and sectors are darlings because they are doing well in the new economy. Or, in the case of the internets, are well positioned in the new economy. RE: 3] We are at the tail end of a period in which capital markets were pumped up by favorable FED and international monetary policies and in which foreign investments flowed into the US. Capital flows always fluctuate. It's noise to the long term new economy bull. RE: 4] As the economy grows overseas pricing pressure will increase. This will reverse the "Goldilocks" trend of lower materials and raw price inputs and will put increased pressure on overall corporate profits. It's not happening. Inflation numbers continue to baffle old thinking. Philips curve is dead. Productivity is killing inflation. 5] The huge expansion in stock options programs has not been effectively priced into economist's wage inflation models. Real wage inflation is about 1.5% higher than the non-adjusted figures. This will show up going forward in greater stock dilution to the detriment to investors. It doesn't seem to have a big impact on the CPI. Any ideas why? 6] The "window of opportunity" for early adopter Internet growth is about over. The next phase of the Internet's development will see emergence of traditional retailers and increased competition resulting in yet lower prices. Yep. Lower prices means low inflation. This is what I expect of the "new economy". While Amazon and others can likely survive the battle, the time-line for profitability will likely be driven back further than most investors anticipate I agree. 7] The "new economy", whatever that means, is unlikely to have re-written the laws of economics. Economic laws remain unchanged. But our traditional method of discerning "value" (i.e. PE) is ill suited for the transition into the new era. Some of the ways products are sold will drastically change for sure. But that doesn't mean that competition will be any less severe - current trends and studies indicate that margins will be lower and competition more fierce than "conventional" retail. Networking effects tend to give first movers an advantage in the new economy. But the net also gives consumers more pricing information. This will help keep prices low. So you may be right.