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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43561)	9/23/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 94695

Haim, i agree that overseas accounts are getting wary of this market..apparently some money got reallocated into the bond market today. regards, hb

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43561)	9/23/1999 4:10:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

do i get any credit for this??? Message 11303774 Paulo stockmotions.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43561)	9/24/1999 3:46:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 94695

I think this selling by foreign interests actually has been going on for some time now as a selling campaign. Selling has just been accelerating recently to end up in the state you see it now. This had started out as calculated selling which has now lead to this selling by the public would. The sellers would first wait for the market to have a majority of waiting buyers, typically at what appeared to the market as the beginning of a second leg to a rally. Now the selling has been in a stagnant market that still was showing good sentiment in terms of waiting buying interest. So we would end up getting the whipsaws. This lead to a choppy market that then started trading in narrowing ranges. But from the broader perspective it eventually became obvious we were headed down. Now the foreign interest also see where the market is heading. This is why they have become much more aggressive by continuing to step up their selling efforts. Many have been saying that it is not in the industry's best interest to allow the market to drop below critical support due to end-of-quarter concerns. This very nation-centric view has its flaws. For I think a substantial amount of monies that are in the market come from foreign concerns. And when they decide that they need their money out of the market, they simply do not give a damn as to how the EOQ will look for your U.S. based funds. Keep in mind that this IMO has been a selling campaign that has been going on for months now. Here are some musings of mine: Put yourself in the shoes of those who need to successfully pull off a selling campaign with an attempt to minimize the impact on the market in order to make an attempt at retaining current gains? What would you do? Hit the leadership first? I think not. But hitting it last and even helping to support its price advance in carefully selected stocks during this selling campaign in order to be able to sell into continuing buying interest may be the answer. Oh, and how does big money make for an exit from the market as they are dumping significant sell orders? Probably from some kind of hedging activity. So if this is in terms of PUT options, gues what the sentiment indicator based strictly on these options would look like? Probably that a turn around is just right around the corner. Particularly as the selling steps up in magnitude. But the most important element of successfully using sentiment indicators is timing. For that matter, extremes in sentiment can prevail for sme time before the actual turnaround begins. FWIW. BWDIK. Thoughts for your consideration. Bob Graham