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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8340)	9/23/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78847

Your comments reek of optimism, mike, possibly only matched by the guy from dow forcasts who is looking for a severe decline from here. I was surprised at the beating Comcast took in my portfolio. I am really undecided how the market will respond tomorrow. Frequently it counters a down day like this with an up day. The only question I have is will there be any buyers of stock tomorrow, or is this the beginning of a period where there are no individual buyers and and the funds want to lighten up ahead of fund liquidations. I expect tomorrow CNBC will be full of the guys who say dollar average in, remember you're a long term investor. What is your portfolio allocation these days guys? I currently have a 25% hedge which moves twice as strong as the nasdaq100, 11% cash, 64% common stocks but that includes 10% energy and 5% mining, and I have an 8% special situation play that I expect will come to fruition in the next three months. Something tells me that if there is a rebound tomorrow I should be raising cash.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8340)	9/23/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78847

I am still of the opinion that we will break 10,000 on the Dow, at which time people will panic, "the sky is falling", etc and throw in the towel. This will create the bottom of the range for a while. I also believe that the odds of a new high next year are less than 50/50. Finally I do not think we will see a 20% gain for a year in the Dow for many years, unless it is in the aftermath of a bear market. Although I believe the "glory days" are over, I am not persuaded that we are due for a traditional bear market as so much of the market is not overpriced.