To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (34502 ) 9/23/1999 7:56:00 PM From: The Phoenix Respond to of 45548
What makes you think that I feel that CSCO is invincible? I only indicated that COMS is the last company they are concerned about and more specifically I was laughing at your comment. a sleeping giant has awoken All that notwithstanding...and even though the discussion is about COMS - not Cisco I will humor you nonetheless. So, against my better judgement I'll allow you to take our discussion in a different direction - Cisco. Cisco has much to be concerned about and I never at any time indicated otherwise. LU and NT are big concerns as Cisco marches into the telephony markets. MSFT and INTC as they attempt to take the value and differentiation out of the communications equipment. But I can assure you COMS is not a concern. The product overlap is very thin and COMS continues to push edge equipment - a market that Cisco couldn't care less about. Where COMS and CSCO compete COMS loses almost everytime... Yes, that could change, but by the time that happens I'll be retired. ;) As for valuations. I have no intent of attempting to convince you that Cisco's valuations are reasonable or not (heck let's not ask Steve Ballmer <HA>). Nor do I want to make you a "apostate" (btw: can you get medication for that?). One can only evaluate a company's track record, growth rate, market opportunity, ability to make or beat plans, ability to create opportunities and markets, etc. and then make their own judgements on whether to buy or not. That's called the free market system. Cisco may not deserve a valuation of $225B, but they clearly are one of the premier communications companies on the planet along with LU and NT and apparently most investors seem to think CSCO is worth it's valuation. It's not my call, but I'm sure glad I own a chunk of "the rock"...and I always add on weakness. So, here's how I play it. Cisco buy and hold and add on weakness COMS - a trading stock. Even EB says not to expect revenue growth for the next 2 quarters. I don't expect siginficant gains on COMS given declining revenues while CISCO is adding $4B-$5B in revenue annually. Just think. This year CSCO might add as much to their total revenue as COMS does in revenue this year. Now, you want to talk about valuations? OG