To: JC Jaros who wrote (20180 ) 9/24/1999 11:52:00 AM From: Alok Sinha Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
Balmer has long complained that MSFT was overvalued, even their CFO had made a couple of years ago that he considered the stock overpriced. I think you are being incorrect to translate Ballmer's comments as a sort of warning. Financially, I can't remember when MSFT did not beat numbers (by keeping guidance artificially low like most tech companies - SUN is probably an exception). If the new computing paradigm translates into astronomically valued firms with little in sales, negative earnings for the forseeable future with only "hits" to show for the success of the business model, then I would term it as a bubble. Don't get me wrong, I think the SUN's , CSCOs, MSFT's, Intel and TXN's probably deserve a higher than market multiple becuase they have demonstrated without any doubt that they can execute and leverage of the changing technology trends. Having a web-site for a company (which most of the YHOO and AMZN wannabe's effectively are) to me is not reason enough to command the valuations that they do. The tech meltdown is bruising my portfolio like most of yours (although I did have some SUN Oct 85 puts that I sold late yesterday, and some 80 puts that I got out of this morning - I think timing wise I am wrong 80% of the time) but some of the recent gains have been more due to market momentum (and economically redundant news such as splits) - so it should be taken in stride. Additionally some consider Ballmer's views as irresponsible and responsible for the tech sell-off. It is laughable if you believe that the combined wisdom of the analysts and investors can be negated by one individuals comments. Enough signs existed of this meltdown: trading in the last couple of weeks during which practically every sector had collapsed with the exception of large cap techs, A/D ratios, weak financials, stubborn rates, falling dollar, wideing trade gap. Frankly, I was really impressed with the NASDAQ's resiliency in face of such odds, and was begining to believe that the breakout may be on the upside since all of the negative sentiment was not causing any dent in the big cap techs and Internets. Also the net sector which is probably more overvalued that any other (and to which the comments were directed) is holding quite well probably due to "the holiday basket" that ML analyst has been touting. Regards Alok