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To: John Stewart who wrote (1847)	9/23/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3661

John, As usual, I'm absolutely enthralled with your estimate. At a PSR of 3.5, that would be a an 8 bagger from todays price in about 2 years, mush more if the cycle extends. 1 Question. Many fab managers seem to have delayed upgrades hoping to wait until 300mm was more mature before committing big bucks one way or the other. To tide them over they've gone to foundries such as TSMC and UMC!!! What's the probability that these managers are taking extreme heat from their officers and Boards now that they're unable to meet customer requirements? If reasonably probable, what's the likelihood that we're going to see another rush wave of expansion with immediate delivery dates requested? To thread, In case you can't tell, I think that the Taiwan Earthquake is going to be extraordinarily bullish for some of the equipment companies. First the maintenance services in Taiwan will be billable. Second, I believe that fabs will put more urgency on expanding rather than outsourcing - especially to an earthquake prone region. [Oops, isn't that where they built Silicon Valley?] Best wishes, Ian.