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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Jung who wrote (68155)	9/24/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: AurumRabosa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Are you really going to buy this dip? I think INTC is toast along with MU, DELL, BRCM, RMBS, GATW, etc... With 80% of the world's motherboards built in Taiwan who needs Pentiums or DRAM chips? They're going to sell off inventory for a few weeks but then they'll have an empty pipeline and the next quarter could produce negative earnings for tech stocks. If they turn the Taiwan fabs back on too fast (before Oct 14th or so) I'd be even more concerned that they'd cut so many corners that they were selling defective and unreliable product into the field. They need to do major maintenance on their fab equipment to clean them, especially plasma etchers. Normally they have to take them down one at a time and rotate through the fab, now they have to do all of them at once and don't have enough people or spare parts on hand. How many lot boxes with 25 wafers each fell on the floor and were just picked up and put back on the shelf at various steps in the fab process? When the power went off every DI water line in the plant became a "dead leg" and bacteria proliferate a billion-fold in only 24 hours, especially if they use any form of plastic pipe which the bacteria feed on. This dirty water will affect assembly plants as well as fabs. They'll have to flush the lines, stop and replace all the filters, and then flush and test some more. The epoxy used in packaging must be kept frozen or it begins to crosslink and set up and must be replaced if the freezer warmed up. The epoxy is made in large batches as needed and not just off-the-shelf. And far more questions with no answers. Perhaps I'm an alarmist but I have my ballz in one hand and the money in the other hand is, and has been, buying puts on a basket of high tech nosebleed stocks. The bubble is bursting and the impact of the tragic Taiwan earthquake and other failures will exacerbate the "nuclear winter." After the market closed news broke that a new high speed motherboard using RBUS memory has a fatal flaw which renders them trash. "...between 100,000 and a million systems already have been built with the defective parts." news.cnet.com The "nuclear winter" is described in this article High Tech Strategist by Fred Hickey: siliconinvestor.com A brief shopping list of high tech nosebleeders: finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com Caveat emptor to all dip buyers.

To: Greg Jung who wrote (68155)	9/24/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Franco Battista	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Greg,what is especially worrisome is that this market has been relying on the most volatile sectors to either go up or hold its gains. This buy the dip mentality will take time to erode since it has worked so often in the past, but it will come to pass also. People have become so complacent that things cannot go wrong that they will probably stay in there until it is too late. One more thing from Richard Russell's commentary with which I fully agree: " This bear market signal has come in the face of what I consider the most arrogant, the most mindless and the greediest period in finance that I've seen in my 45 years of watching markets. Should be interesting in the period ahead. " Is this the New Paradigm?