To: hdrjr who wrote (51758 ) 9/24/1999 12:45:00 AM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
EW on the DJIA--well here goes folks---my preferred count is that we are in the process of putting in a bottom of Wave 4, to be followed by one more New High---As I see it, the top of Wave 3 was back on July 19 at 11,252 and then we embarked upon a complex and elongated Wave 4, which consisted of a 3 wave "A" wave down to 10,549 on Aug 10, then a 3 wave "B" wave back up which slightly exceeded the Wave 3 top, this time peaking at 11,366 in August, and finally what is now likely to turn out to be a 5 wave "C" wave down ultimately bottoming in the 9800-10100 area on or before Oct 4...In Elliott parlance it is what is known as a 3-3-5 Flat (the whole move being roughly sideways)...I think we have already completed subwave 1 of this "C" wave down to 10,733 on Sept2 and subwave 2 up to 11142 on Sept 10 and I suspect we will finish subwave 3 Friday morning, if we haven't already done so at Thursday's low. Then I am anticipating a subwave 4 blip up to start Fri and extend into Mon BUT fail below 10,733 (that number is critical resistance) and then take out Thursday's low by extending into the 9800-10,100 area approx for subwave 5---watch 10,733 on the upside (if it falls, we are likely going to new highs from there) and also watch near 10,000 (if we get near there without FIRST bouncing into say 11,600ish for subwave 4 then we may be going into the low 9000's before it is over as subwave 3 would be extending.... But bottom line, this is likely the climax to the entire wave 4 correction that we have likely been in since July and be over within 6-8 more trading days. my 2c fwiw. I'm still 87% in cash, waiting, waiting. For me, the key is when do we exceed 10,733? when we do, it should confirm the correction is over.,,how about that for going out on a limb?
