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To: garrick le who wrote (23960)9/23/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss  Respond to of 27307
 
The only reason I am not convinced it is going straight down, is the prices for puts. The premium is not like it has been in recent past when the stock plummetted from 189 to 110. Right now the Oct. 170 puts are only about 71/2 and the Oct. 165 puts are about 51/2 (at todays close). Even the Nov. 170 puts are only about 13. I say only because I saw them yesterday at 15-16 with the stock at 174! So that says to me the market makers know that the stock is going up and thus will not pay out top dollar during this 'fake out' fall. I could be way off here, but sometimes the options prices tell me which way the market is going. Time will tell. I agree the risk reward is not good here, but going straight down? I would be surprised. Steve D.