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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (8351)	9/23/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78958

What institutional investors were talking about after the close today wasn't so much the Microsoft comment, but rather that the Dow went through a significant support level like a hot knife through butter. And the S+P went through a minor support level. This is what may spook institutions from buying at the open tomorrow. If the market opens down tomorrow, or turns down in the first hour, we bears are going to have some fun for a change. I'm picking my levels for stocks like Clayton Homes, which is already at an absurd level but probably has not bottomed yet. We need some huge volume to finish this one off. I'll buy into that and make my stand. I'm also starting to pick my dream prices for things like Gillette and Wrigley. They're still 20-30% away from where I would start buying, but the way they're going they could get there in a hurry. JJC

To: Madharry who wrote (8351)	9/23/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 78958

Re: ONE I'm just wary of stocks that every investor is calling a value stock. The spin doesn't match the price action. The last thing I would buy ONE for is its dividend. By my reading the securitized market just turned off ONE's credit card growth spicket. Equity/Capital at 10%, but is probably misleading. We're talking equity of 12 billion, and credit card debt (as an asset) over $70 billion, most of which has already been securitized with implicit back-up from ONE. ONE can possibly be on the hook for more than its legal requirement if the loans go bad. What we do know is ONE's equity ain't secured. That dividend may have very, very low priority at some point in the near future. Then of course we don't know how much credit card debt is financing speculation on margin into internuts. This is the wild card that just makes my head spin. A few years ago, before net mania, there was 4000 in credit card debt for every human being in the US. I doubt many of them paid that off before they went and invested in the stock market. This bubble was created from liquidity, and it isn't all coming from retirement money. Too big to fail maybe, and maybe we should look at what Citibank got to in the early 90s as a guidepost for a safe buy point. Just too many cooks calling the kettle black right now and it ain't safe in the kitchen, IMO. Mike