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To: Voltaire who wrote (42399)	9/23/1999 11:28:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Voltaire, I'm not saying the BULL is dead. I just have the feeling we need more downside, for lack of a better word, a capitulation if you will. Maybe we saw the beginning of that today. So my view is some more failed rally attempts are ahead. I just want to see a washed out looking tape at the end. Uglier the better. I just read this after I posted to you, I felt it pretty much summed it up so I added it to this post. If one takes a look at the sp-500 or the Dow, they look like last year this time, maybe we will get a double bottom again. <<Tips & Hints (Thursday, September 23, 1999, 4:00 P.M.) TIP: About Head-&-Shoulders Tops One of the often forgotten characteristics of a head-and-shoulders top is that the volume at the head (the actual top) must be lower than the volume on the left shoulder. The volume on the right shoulder must in turn be lower than the volume at the head. Using this guideline, head-and-shoulders tops can generally be anticipated, and even acted upon, before they are consummated. The formation is consummated when the price finally severs the neckline. However, this severance is often so severe that the stock or average is oversold before you can act (an action being something like a short sale). By observing the decline in volume over three successive peaks, probabilities favor the final consummation still to come. Instead of volume (shown in bars), you can use MoneyStream or TSV as the guideline. This offers even greater predictability than declining volume alone. TSV did an outstanding job of showing the declining strength in the head-and-shoulders top that was consummated today. HINT: Targets, Targets – Who's Got a Target? Today the 30-week MA was penetrated in both the Dow and the S&P 500, which will be widely perceived as ominous beyond measure. The market went down, and that is ominous with or without a moving average. But not without measure. The Dow broke down from the lateral trading range spanning the last two months. That is a downside resolution and that is significant. MoneyStream did a good job of warning us that it would happen. However, the Average is not going to plunge to zero. A logical objective for now is about 9200, which coincides loosely with last year's highs. It is just a bit lower than a fifty percent retracement of the intermediate advance from last October's low to the recent highs (which would be at about 9485). However, this is only a working target. Remember, that a normal correction usually retraces somewhere between a third and two-thirds of the move being corrected. This suggests a likely bottom somewhere between 10,073 and 8859. As we just said, we would opt for something in between. We identified what we termed "a classic head & shoulders top" in the S&P 500 a few days ago. At that time the formation had not been consummated. Today it has been. Using the one-third to two-thirds rule as a rule of thumb, this would place the likely bottom between 1130 and 1265. The best working target we can site at the moment is somewhere between 1198 (a 50 percent retracement) and 1175 (last year's approximate high).>> Greg