Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51767)	9/24/1999 12:43:00 AM
From: GaAs52	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John Q Public My only reservation (well, lack of understanding) for E&P with high NG exposure is the recent surge in drilling activity for gas. The recent surge in drilling is almost all for gas, which makes the number of rigs drilling for gas as high as the 97 boom times. It looks like there will be plenty of NG after all this activity. Please comment on my earlier post in rig numbers for gas and oil. Message 11335005 Oil and gas Rig Count Some numbers from BH rig count Date----------Tot. Rig------Gas Rig----- Oil Rig 01/26/96-----703----------404--------- 291 09/05/97-----1032---------625--------- 404 04/23/99-----488----------362--------- 126 08/06/99-----616----------516--------- 98 09/17/99-----703----------570--------- 132

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51767)	9/24/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: Webster Groves	Respond to of 95453

I believe your logic is sound on these 3 picks (I hold 2 of them myself). Unfortunately, the current price of any stock is not a function of logic but rather perception. Of course, in the long term earnings will determine the value of a stock relative to its peers, and the market sentiment will set the P/E ratio for the group. To have patience it is important not to be overcommitted. You have the pain of a margin call and yet you yearn to buy more because it's "such a value now". This is a recipe for disaster, especially in small cap stocks. On a daily basis the game isn't chess, it's poker. They say a drink a day is good for the heart, but too many are bad for the liver. So my simple suggestion is to lighten up (your position). Play with fewer chips but play longer and don't worry about not pushing your bet even if you hold a winning hand. (Been there, done that.) -wg

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51767)	9/24/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

JQP--Interestingly, I only own 3 stocks in the total market at the moment counting as a total of 17% of my portfolio (87% in cash)-2 oils plus HRC--and the 2 oils are TMR and RRC. By my wave count, both oil stocks should take out their recent interim highs 'shortly' so I will wait. I am underwater on RRC by 1.00 and up on TMR by 3/8ths from where I last bought it back at 4.63 ( initially bought at 3.94). We shall see.....I got murdered in the 87 crash as I was on margin and almost got wiped out-had to go to the bank to help me keep going--after that I have never used any margin in 12 years. One terrifying lesson was enough. I can sympathize with your stress and relate to it.-----I see S&P futures were down 9 at midnight btw

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51767)	9/24/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Very interesting mea culpa, John Q. My reaction is about the same as when you listed your portfolio some time back, ....."You have got to be kidding!". Now that you have said this is your retirement dough, I need to add a few exclamation points.<vbg> That is the main thing missing here. Is this the bulk of your retirement money or did you convert a LARGE traditional IRA to a Roth and most of your retirement money is there and widely diversified? If this is just your gambling money, that is one thing but it sure doesn't sound like it. You are concentrated in a couple of stocks that are illiquid, easily manipulated and may well be quasi-private companies masquerading as public companies whose main purpose is to enrich the insiders. You can easily lose 10% of the share price to the spread on a round turn. These companies are flying so far below Wall Street radar, they are invisible. The daily dollar volume in these stocks is like one second of INTC or MSFT. Do you really know whether higher energy prices will translate into improved bottom lines for this type of chronically unprofitable company? Even if it does, will Wall Street notice? Is this really the best possible investments for you out of 10,000+ listed companies? I think you may have a case of slider-itis and only interested in companies "guaranteed" to go up 50% in a month. You need some diversification, dude. I'am also recently retired and investing for fun and profit. A couple of sayings I keep stuck to my monitor for perspective. 1. Wall Street doesn't give a rat's ass what you think. 2. I don't know what the market is going to do today, tomorrow, ever. Best of luck, John

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51767)	9/24/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JohnQ.Public, I'm really excited now because I realize if I follow your investment strategy, I could really get in shape! VVBG! Just kidding JQP, just kidding. Seriously now, logic can be a trap in the markets. Nothing more frustrating than being right and still being wrong. As another reply to your post suggested, logic is not the stock markets price measure as much as perception, a poker game as they said. To deal with the resulting uncooperative price action one must sometimes shift tactics, logic be damned. It is also helpful to be conversant in another sector that operates off of a different market perception. For example, I've been a gold stock investor on and off for years. In 97 I got whacked pretty good with the Aussie July 4th gold sale, though I was not on margin. What I did the rest of the year was to use those holdings for margin and invest that margin in tech stocks. Didn't know a whole bunch about them but the perception was right for a profit that made my gold stock losses up. I shoulda woulda coulda stayed in tech but thats a long story! I also use TA, charts and when it gets down to the tough calls, what they used to say "reading the tape". That gets subjective and unquantifiable, is intuitive and perhaps illogical; nevertheless it has saved my financial butt a half dozen times. You have to read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" If the price flow (tape) shows it wants to go down and the charts show bad things ahead, throw the logic to heck and get out. This does not work if one is being affected by fear or greed at the time, re the sheeple VBG. This is exactly what I did with RRC per a recent post here lately, tape and chart showed a problem which defied the imminent logic of NG prices. I also considered the fact of my own portfolio: what if I sustained a 20% or greater loss in RRC and FGI, my main holdings, at the same time? Bingo, margin call, RRC would generate a margin call by going to 4 5/8 at my broker and it looked most likely to go down. So I sold it all, though I am convinced of the fundamentals of the company, as are you. I reduced my amount of overall margin and after looking at the situation with the general market (read down) and the bullish read on gold just before and immediately after the Bank of England sale I went back into that depressed sector via AEM, a promising gold stock. Profits there have offset FGI losses. As gold moves very quickly at times, the chances of cashing a profit and being back into RRC for any upmoves seem reasonable. BTW, I like AEM as a gold stock as much as I like RRC for a NG stock, I may keep quite a bit of it as long as gold seems healthy and I can watch it! Back in May I had very nice profits in gold stocks of which I gave half back after the BOE sale announcement. I had learned my lesson with the Aussie sale, I sold, but I was just a little bit effected by greed and hesitated, which cost me half my profits. Well John, you should be asleep by now after reading this, heh heh. Best of luck, Roebear