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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (6858)	9/24/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: AurumRabosa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Are you guyz really going to buy this dip? I think INTC is toast along with MU, DELL, BRCM, RMBS, GATW, etc... With 80% of the world's motherboards built in Taiwan who needs Pentiums or DRAM chips? They're going to sell off inventory for a few weeks but then they'll have an empty pipeline and the next quarter could produce negative earnings for tech stocks. If they turn the Taiwan fabs back on too fast (before Oct 14th or so) I'd be even more concerned that they'd cut so many corners that they were selling defective and unreliable product into the field. They need to do major maintenance on their fab equipment to clean them, especially plasma etchers. Normally they have to take them down one at a time and rotate through the fab, now they have to do all of them at once and don't have enough people or spare parts on hand. How many lot boxes with 25 wafers each fell on the floor and were just picked up and put back on the shelf at various steps in the fab process? When the power went off every DI water line in the plant became a "dead leg" and bacteria proliferate a billion-fold in only 24 hours, especially if they use any form of plastic pipe which the bacteria feed on. This dirty water will affect assembly plants as well as fabs. They'll have to flush the lines, stop and replace all the filters, and then flush and test some more. The epoxy used in packaging must be kept frozen or it begins to crosslink and set up and must be replaced if the freezer warmed up. The epoxy is made in large batches as needed and not just off-the-shelf. And far more questions with no answers. Perhaps I'm an alarmist but I have my ballz in one hand and the money in the other hand is, and has been, buying puts on a basket of high tech nosebleed stocks. The bubble is bursting and the impact of the tragic Taiwan earthquake and other failures will exacerbate the "nuclear winter." After the market closed news broke that a new high speed motherboard using RBUS memory has a fatal flaw which renders them trash. "...between 100,000 and a million systems already have been built with the defective parts." news.cnet.com The "nuclear winter" is described in this article High Tech Strategist by Fred Hickey: siliconinvestor.com A brief shopping list of high tech nosebleeders: finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com Caveat emptor to all dip buyers.

To: Berney who wrote (6858)	9/24/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 11051

Berney:" light metals " btw, T and GE ex-dividend 28-SEP, Tuesday fwiw. AA - Alcoa just being swept by the sentiment, isn't it Berney? It is the best-run light metals company in the world, that I can tell you. AL - Alcan has always been more "international". They're both digesting mergers&acquisitions, as you know - they'll both need to lay-off workers. I do not expect them to build any more (primary) pot-line capacity in the near future. The Russians continue to dump aluminium for hard currency in the EU and US. Have not done any T/A on them... imho - "avoid". NHY - Norsk Hydro is another player, Berney. They are considered to be an oil company by most Americans, but their largest division is "fertilizer". They are quite strong F/A, but they have an ultra-conservative, Scandinavian management who are satisfied with slow growth in return for a lot of security/stability. I've been working with them for about 10 years - went over there to teach them about "recycling" and they use my "Alloy Synthesizer", license my "Precision Blending" technique, which AA and AL do not have. I have converted all of NHY's plants in the EU, and feeling their oats now, they will build a new, state-of-the art "recycling" plant in TheStates... biz.yahoo.com ...and make precision 6063/6061 billet with the technique. It's a mild threat to AA & AL but, their bread-and-butter is aluminium cans. Because NHY are considered to be "oil", and they are so damn conservative - it's a great stock for stoic Scandinavians but imho - the ultimate turtle ! ...we might bounce (mebbe DOW ~10225?) after breaking the 200d EMA - if we don't, we're in "crash mode" - there's no T/A "support" there - just a fib near-target. Does not look "supportable" on the chart until DOW ~9900 area ? -Steve