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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (28973)	9/24/1999 4:58:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Well I see the probability of a bounce here pretty high but I have to disagree that AG has capped the euphoria. Stocks like SUNW, some of the new internets and especially the Semis are still in ga ga land. Semis rallying hard just because they might have thier first profitable quarters to these levels is ridiculous. Micron loses money for 7 quarters then triples because they might have one or two good quarters. The foreign fabs are gearing up and there will be a lag time where MU can make money but charging a million bucks on your credit card so you can make a couple thousand in payments for two months before you have to start charging another couple million is not good financial planning <ggg> Earnings have increased this year averaged out about 7-8% yet the indexes have almost doubled. We need to go a lot lower. I know this market defies reality so we will never drop to fair value until the end and it gets really ugly so I don't expect us to drop that far but I still think we have a lot lower to go in the longer term picture of a few months. I think we will get a bounce soon butthen we will head back south. I am figuring on an early prediction of DOW 10K area, possibly 9800, an OEX of around 655 with 640 possible, a SPX of 1230 and a NASDAQ in the 2650-2675 range. We may not get there since I thinkthe FOMC meeting may provide fuel for a stop to this slide but until then, I think we will trend ever downward. Good Luck, Lee