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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17845)	9/24/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

quit while you're ahead -g-

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17845)	9/24/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Other than issue I have discussed earlier and the "horrible" fundamentals, an issue that was beaten to death over the last two years, what is the basis for my predictions? Good question! I will come-up with something here! -g- I do not like TA on individual companies. But wrt general market, a lot of folks are congregating on to TA to make critical decisions. I called wolf based on a sole NH-NL indicator in mid October, 1997. Same indicator, which turned negative a day after S&P set new high in July 98 (Jul 17th peak to be exact) gave a sell signal for 98. However, this indicator was noticed by many and didn't work in 99. So, one can not rely on this alone any more. I looked for clues in Fall fall of indices. Two indices appeared to have led the rout in S&P. Banking Index and London FTSE. Look at the charts below at the time when 50 DMA crosses 200 DMA from ABOVE. quote.yahoo.com^FTSE+^spx+^bkx&d=2ym For both BKX and FTSE the infection point occurred a couple of weeks or so before it did for S&P. What is the connection among the three? Banking stocks indicate local liquidity and FTSE indicates foreign sentiment and possibly liquidity or lack there of. For the last 3 weeks, notice the lag between S&P 50/200 DMA inflection point vs the convergence of these lines for S&P and FTSE. My unscientific conclusion is this: Liquidity is not there and foreigners are also getting out. So, I assumed that the same pattern as BKX should occur in S&P. Will it? I hope so. BTW, please notice what happened to the indices a couple of week after the inflection point! -g-