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To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (40763)	9/24/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116958

Taken From feer.com Reining in a bubble is never easy and my (lay) suspicion is that U.S. rates may have to rise a lot further than markets expect. Recall that under conditions of negligible goods-price inflation the Bank of Japan still had to raise the official discount rate five times, from 2.5% to 6%, during 1989-90 before the message hit home. The danger now is not so much that Asian rates, aside from Hong Kong's, would have to follow America's; rather it's that a derailment of America's Goldilocks economy could severely disrupt the region's recovery. However, the only real known factor at this juncture is that every analyst who has tried to call the top of the U.S. bull run over the past few years has been carried out through the door. So, returning to my original theme, which countries and asset markets should see sustainable performance going forward, and which will falter?